The Redskins will beat Houston if….
1. …they win big on the turnover battle again. The Redskins need another big turnover margin day to beat Houston. My guess is plus-2 or better is necessary. The Skins are plus-11 overall on the season. That plus-11 has come in their 6 wins; they are even up in their 3 losses. So even when the turnover margin has been a push, it hasn’t been good enough to win. It’s obvious, they need plus turnover margins to win games. Their offense hasn’t been good enough to overcome their opponents without help. At least not yet.
2. …they get home with their pass rush on 3rd down. Watson has been sacked 30 times this year-8th most in the league. They are the only winning team in the league that has allowed anywhere near that many sacks. A lot them come because Watson tries to make plays running around, creating time, extending plays. With that said, those 30 sacks have led to an unimpressive 3rd down make percentage. They convert just 38% of the time on 3rd down. However, the Redskins haven’t been a good 3rd down defense. Let me repeat because contrary to much of the fan and media discussion that has elevated the Skins’ defense to elite levels, the Redskins aren’t a very good 3rd-down defense right now. They are currently 28th in the league on 3rd down. 28th! They have to be better today. Getting to a quarterback that has been dropped and hit a ton this year will go a long way towards getting the Texans off the field. A 4-5 sack day with lots of hits could lead to the turnovers they need. Do all of the above and a they can win a 19-16 type of game.
3. …they win the field goal battle. What? Field goals? Yes. The Skins have been on the right side of the field goal war this year. They are 11th in made field goal percentage while their opponents are 28th. Think about the Dallas miss that would’ve forced overtime and what two missed Tampa kicks meant last week. They’ve been living right this year. The Texans are 27th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. Watson, Miller, and Hopkins are going to make plays between the 20s but the Skins proved last week to pretty good at “bend don’t break” defense. On the flip side, while Dustin Hopkins hasn’t been healthy, they need him to continue to be accurate. To win today, he may need 3 to 4 made kicks, a couple from long range.
4. …they are versatile offensively. If the Skins are going to have any success offensively, they have to keep Houston off balance. The Texans are 2nd in the league in defensive yards per carry. They’re going to shut down the run if there isn’t some creativity in the offense this week. The Skins can’t get behind the chains or Tress Way will have 7-8 punts in this game. By the way, Tress Way’s punts have had significant positive impact on field position this year. You just don’t want him forced to kick more than 4-5 times. More than that means very little offense.
5. …they stop the run. Don’t let Houston become two-dimensional in this game or it’s going to be a long day. Hopkins and company are really good and Houston can throw it to win it but if Watson has a running game, the boots and play-action will be killers.
6. …they get some crowd support? Josh Norman wasn’t wrong. He just doesn’t understand the baggage of the last 20 years. It would be nice to get help from a crowd excited about their 6-3 record. The Skins haven’t been 7-3 in 22 years.
Prediction:
Texans 24-16
I don’t love this match-up. I see a tough day for the offense and enough Houston offense to win the game. Houston turnovers and mistakes would create the opportunity for the Redskins to win the game but I like Houston today.
To listen to an even more detailed preview of the game, click below and go to the 11:12 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/16/redskins-texans-preview-ross-tucker-and-svp-too/
