The Redskins will beat the Saints if….
- …they move the football consistently. They’ve been an inconsistent offensive football team so far but they’re playing against one of the weaker defenses in the league. Converting third-downs keeps the chains and clock moving which results in Drew Brees being off the field. I trust the defense more this year but any defense knows that the formula for beating the Saints includes keeping Brees off the field. In last year’s memorable meltdown in New Orleans, the Skins rolled up 456 yards and 31 points through just over three quarters. They blitzed Cousins and he made them pay at every turn. They ran the ball with Perine (117 yards) which ate clock and they didn’t have a 3 & out until the 4th quarter. The New Orleans defense is worse this year than last so far. It ranks 24th overall and 28th on 3rd-down. The Skins’ offense is a work in progress but this should be a chance for a breakout game. A lot of tonight’s success will be on Alex Smith. He needs to read it, get it out, and when necessary, use his legs to make plays. I hope Gruden runs more read-option and even some of the speed option stuff we saw in the opener against the Cardinals. Andy Reid never hesitated to run him in Kansas City if it was necessary. The Skins are relatively healthy and have enough weapons to do some damage even without a legit deep threat. Reed, Thompson, Crowder, and Peterson are more than most teams have. Tonight needs to be an offensive night or they’re in trouble.
- …they catch the 1-2 balls that Brees will put up for grabs. Brees has not thrown an interception this year but Brees over the course of his career will give the opponent 1-2 interception opportunities per game. He takes risks, throws into tight windows, and until last year, had gone 12 straight seasons with double-digit picks. The Skins have to make him pay if/when he makes that occasional risky throw that he shouldn’t make. A plus-2 in the turnover margin would go a long way to having a chance to win the game.
- …Jay Gruden & staff are on top of their game. Last year’s painful 15-point throwaway in the Superdome was on a defense that crumbled but on a coaching staff that bungled and stumbled with the game on the line. Gruden got conservative; so did Manusky. They played soft coverage against Brees up 15 and paid for it. Gruden ran the ball three times when they needed one first down to ice the game. The 3rd and less than a yard was a slow-developing running play with the crowd roaring that got blown up. Sneak it! You can’t ever think about giving the ball back to the Saints in a close game even if they have no timeouts. You have to win it on offense. Jay didn’t recognize that. He also had a stupid challenge on an obvious Fleener catch that cost him a timeout he would desperately need when he didn’t know the 10-sec runoff rule at the end of the regulation. That botched situation could’ve been saved with the timeout he gave away for a non-sense challenge and they still would’ve had a chance to win it before overtime. You think that game has stuck with me a little? Look, let’s be honest here. Jay Gruden has been a liability in close games more than an asset. He’s a nice guy and a good offensive mind but when it comes to the little things, he’s often a day late/dollar short. That must change this year or a somewhat talented team will be wasted.
Prediction:
Saints 30-23
The Podcast:
Clinton Portis was a guest today as was Andy Pollin. Lots of NFL Sunday recap plus a discussion about where Drew Brees ranks among the all-time greats.
Kevin, You must rank Brees ahead of Marino, though not ahead of Brady, Montana, Unitas, or Elway says Robert in Annapolis. Enjoying your podcast.