Kevin and Thom discuss the departures of Brian Lafemina and his band of merry men. They also make predictions on the next Redskin hammer(s) to fall. More DJ Swearinger discussion too. Adam Schefter was a guest on the show, Kevin/Thom did an “NFL Power Poll”, and Kevin had two Smell Test picks for today’s bowl games.
Kevin recaps the Swearinger release and explains what it means and doesn’t mean. Clinton Portis is a guest on the show talking Swearinger, what’s next for the Redskins, the NFL, and a quick College Football Playoff preview & analysis. Kevin talks Skins’ draft positioning, predicts the NFL Wildcard Weekend layout, and has a bowl game Smell Test pick for today.
With the Redskins officially eliminated from the playoffs, Kevin talks about the Skins’ future….specifically, who’s coming and who’s going. Michael Phillips (Richmond Times Dispatch) considered the fates of 12 of the organization’s players, coaches, and executives and came on to talk about it. Kevin went “Around the NFL” and updated the playoff picture. He also listed the teams in both conferences he believes can win the Super Bowl. He finished up the show with a brief “Weekend DVR” talking Terps, Caps, and Wizards.
WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST?
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means later sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:07:17 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/21/cooleys-call/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 96-71-4
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 12-21-18
Friday, December 21:
BYU -12.5
Saturday, December 22:
Titans -10
Ravens +4
Sunday, December 23:
Texans +1.5
Jaguars +4
Bills +13.5
Lions +6
49ers +4
Steelers +6
Seahawks +2.5
Kevin recaps the Redskins’ gut-wrenching loss to the Titans. JP Finlay/NBC Sports Washington joins the show from Nashville to discuss the game and the harsh post-game comments from DJ Swearinger about Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky. You’ll hear Jay Gruden’s post-game press conference where he got choked up at the end. Kevin goes through the Skins’ remaining long-shot playoff scenarios and touches on the Ravens’ lights-out defensive performance in their win over the Chargers.
The Redskins will beat the Titans if….
- …they can run the football a little bit. It won’t be easy against the Titans who held the Giants last week and the Jaguars the week before to less than 3 yards per carry. Both of those teams had limited pass options (Giants didn’t have OBJ) allowing the Titans to load up the box and dare them to run. They’ll do that today more likely than not against a team without most of their best pass receiving options. Crowder may be the only recognizable name among pass catchers today. If the Skins can run it at least enough to stay out of bad down/distance situations, their chances of making a few first downs and moving the football will be enhanced.
- …they are plus-3 or better in turnover margin. Last week I said it had to be +2 or better to have a chance and it ended up exactly +2 and they barely won. Tennessee is a much better team playing for postseason stakes. If the Titans don’t self-destruct, the Skins have no chance. I would be shocked if the Redskins were in position to win this game today without a substantial turnover margin advantage.
- …they win the field position battle. This has been part of the formula when they’ve won this year. Tress Way has been terrific and probably deserved the NFC Pro Bowl punter slot. His punts have impacted games positively in a major way even in the teams’ losses. Forcing the Titans to go long distances to score should pay off.
- …avoid bad Special Teams plays. Last week’s 74-yard punt return for a touchdown before the half could’ve easily been the difference in the game if not for a few fortunate bounces/deflections late in the game. A big punt return today will be hard to overcome if you believe like I do that points will be at a premium. Dustin Hopkins was 3 for 3 last week and they needed all of them. He can’t miss one today and more likely than not if they head into the 4th quarter in a close game, he’s already made 2 to 3 at that point.
Prediction:
I really believe that last week’s win over Jacksonville was it for the year. I give them credit for showing up and playing well after taking a beating the week before against the Giants. The opponent helped. Jacksonville’s offense in particular was god awful. Tennessee needs the game and they are home. The Redskins need it too but are just down too many key players to win a game like this.
Titans 27-6
***If you want to listen to Chris Cooley and I discuss the game in more detail, you can listen by clicking below and going to the 19:56 mark.
Windows Nation
