Smell Test Wknd of 12-15

WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST? 

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means later sharp money is with me.

To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:26:50 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/14/skins-soap-opera-with-cooley/

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 7-3-1

Overall: 93-71-4

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 12-15-18  

Sunday, December 16:

49ers +3.5

Steelers +3

Monday, December 17:

Panthers +6

Jay The Enabler

Kevin and Thom open the show with a brief discussion of last night’s Wizards-Celtics game. They turn to Jay Gruden’s reaction to Mason Foster’s comments and whether or not Foster should have been released. Maryland Football Coach Mike Locksley is a guest on the show. Kevin and Thom talk Redskins ownership, Bryce Harper, and finish up the show with their NFL Power Poll.

RG3 To DC?

Kevin opens the show by discussing the possibility that RG3 could compete for an NFL starting job somewhere next year and that somewhere could be in Washington. Kevin then talks about the Mason Foster situation before ranking the Redskins Snyder-era “Rock Bottoms”. Scott Allen from the Washington Post and Caps play-by-play voice Joe Beninati are guests on the show. Kevin talks NFC playoff picture and does an “NFL Buy and Sell” to finish up.

Gruden vs. Loverro

After Kevin makes excuses for Kirk Cousins, Thom discusses the question he posed to Jay Gruden that upset the coach so much on Sunday. Kevin and Thom discuss the Washington Post story on the potential for a Skins’ stadium at the RFK site. Then, Thom explains why he thinks Bryce Harper could still end up a Washington National in 2019 and Kevin explains why the NFL 10-minute overtime rule must be changed again. “Coaching Blunders” highlights the major mistake Mike Tomlin made at the end of the Steelers-Raiders game.

Time To Blow It Up

Kevin starts the show describing the all-too familiar feeling of Redskins’ hopelessness and calls for a total organizational reboot. He also recaps the Redskins’ ugly 40-16 loss to the Giants in shorter than usual order. JP Finlay/NBC Sports Washington joins the show to discuss if a coaching or front office change is imminent. Kevin then goes “Around the NFL” discussing a wild day with memorable finishes and concludes with “Weekend DVR” and a suggestion to watch HBO’s final farewell to boxing.

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