Redskins-Giants Preview & Pick

Redskins will beat the Giants if…

  1.  …they hold the Giants to 17 or less. I don’t see the Skins’ offense scoring much with the group they have.  They couldn’t score when they were healthy so I’m not expecting a team that is capable of going out and winning 31-28 or 28-27.  They have four opponents left.  All four are beatable even with the injury-limited group they have.  But they have to win the type of games they won in the first half of the season….20-17, 20-13, 16-3.  To win Sunday, the defense is going to have to play well.  No Odell Beckham Jr. is a break but the Giants are still capable of moving the ball.  The Skins’ defense hasn’t played well since the moment DJ Swearinger said, ‘put it on us, put it on the defense, the defense can carry this team’.  Well it hasn’t.  Not even close.  They have to figure out a way to stop the run against a Giant team that averaged 4.9 yards per carry last week against the #2 rush defense in the league, the Bears.  I think they need to sell out with run blitzes and if Eli checks to throws, jam receivers in man coverage and get to Eli.  Holding the Giants to 17 or less seems doable but stopping the run and forcing the Giants to make plays in the passing game is the only way.
  2. …the Skins realize that moving the ball through the air is their only chance on offense.  I have no faith in the Skins ability to run the ball against anybody right now.  I just don’t think that Gruden and Callahan know how to scheme up a run game that fits the talent they have.  The loss of so many offensive linemen (most notably Brandon Scherff) has made it hard but Gruden is best at scheming people open in the pass game.  Is there that much difference really between McCoy and Sanchez?  What do they have to lose.  If Sanchez can make 3-4 big plays in the passing game against a Giant team without Landon Collins, that may be enough.  He doesn’t have to go 22-28 for 275 and 3 touchdowns but an 18-35 day with 3-4 completions of 25+ yards might create enough scoring opportunities to win the game.  Quarterbacks like Nick Mullens and Chase Daniel have had decent days against the Giants with Collins ON THE FIELD.  Let Sanchez throw it.  It may be the only way they’ll move the football.
  3. …Mark Sanchez doesn’t turn it over a lot.  Mullens and Daniel both had chances to beat New York with the good plays made but they lost the games because each threw two interceptions.  Sanchez has to know that walking off the field with Tress Way walking on it is better than walking off the field and watching his defense come out.

Prediction:

Giants 20-19

To hear the game discussed with Chris Cooley on Friday’s podcast, go the 24:20 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/07/cooley-and-kevin-for-40/

Smell Test: Wknd of Dec. 8

WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST? 

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means later sharp money is with me.

To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:04:10 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/07/cooley-and-kevin-for-40/

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 7-4

Overall: 86-68-3

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 12-8-18  

Saturday, December 8:

Navy +7

Sunday, December 9:

Jets +3.5

Ravens +6.5

Browns +1

Packers -5

Bucs +9.5

Dolphins +7.5

Redskins +3.5

Bengals +14.5

Bears +3.5

Monday, December 10:

Vikings +3.5

“Cooley and Kevin” for 40

Kevin starts the show talking about Alex Smith’s condition, the Terps’ loss at Purdue, and Derrick Henry’s record run last night against the Jags. Cooley joins the show for 40 minutes of Skins and NFL talk. He talks about what he likes and doesn’t like about Mark Sanchez, why the Skins’ running game isn’t working, and the player who has surprised him in recent weeks with impressive performances. Cooley & Kevin do “Friday Football Quick Picks” together which is followed by 11 “Smell Test” picks. The show finishes up with “Skins Score and More” predictions with Andy Pollin

Sanchez Ready, But For What?

Kevin opens the show talking about Mark Sanchez’s smooth press conference from yesterday. He also reminds everyone of the 2009 rumored attempt by the Skins to trade up to draft Sanchez. Thom called in from vacation with interesting information he obtained from the Santa Clara, California DA’s office on Reuben Foster’s first alleged domestic violence incident. Scott Van Pelt joined the show for a conversation about Terps’ new football coach Mike Locksley and the show finished up with an NFL Power Poll.

Getting Close to Big Redskins Changes?

Kevin talks Redskins change and Jay Gruden’s Kapernick answers to start the show. ESPN’s John Keim is a guest talking Skins and what’s next if they don’t make a late-season run. Maryland basketball head coach Mark Turgeon is a guest on the show with the Terps ranked 23rd and headed to Purdue tomorrow night. Kevin discusses new Terps football coach Mike Locksley and does some “Coaching Blunders” and “NFL Buy and Sell” too.

Windows Nation

Window Nation