Redskins-Eagles Preview & Pick

The Redskins will beat the Eagles if…..

  1.  …the defense does its part.  In their last 4 games, the Skins’ D is near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per play (28th), yards allowed per pass attempt (30th), and they are currently 28th in the league on 3rd-down.  Not sure why, but the Eagles haven’t been very good offensively so far.  They are capable but Wentz and company just haven’t gotten the big plays they got a year ago.  They are 19th overall and 23rd in points per game.   DJ Swearinger called teammates out after the loss in Dallas.  I can’t tell you that he called out new teammate HaHa Clinton Dix specifically but I’m sure that Dix hasn’t played well since getting traded to DC.  If the defense steps up and holds Philly to their average of 20.6 points per game, they’ll have a decent chance to win the game.
  2. …if they let Colt rip it.  The Eagles pass defense is 28th in the league. Philly is injured in their secondary with a ton of inexperience on the field tonight minus Malcolm Jenkins.  The Eagles have been target practice in recent weeks.  Blake Bortles threw for nearly 300 yards last month in London against them.  Gruden needs to find the right match-ups and do what he does best….get people open in the passing game.  He needs to scheme it up tonight against a team that can’t cover.  I want to see an aggressive mind set offensively not just tonight, but the rest of the way.
  3. …if Colt throws less than 2 picks. Yes I want him to throw it but no, he can’t throw 3 interceptions like he did in Dallas.  No more than one turnover from the QB tonight.
  4. …if they tackle Corey Clement. He breaks a ton of tackles as a runner and pass receiver and occasionally as a kickoff returner.  He may get more touches tonight with Josh Adams banged up.
  5. …they do the other stuff they’ve done when they’ve won.  Win the turnover battle.  They got none back against Dallas and gave it away three times.  Win the field position battle.  They’ve done a good job of that this year.  Special teams have been an underrated part of their six wins.  Good punting when they have to punt, good coverage, and no missed field goals.  All of the above have been crucial in their wins.

Prediction:

Philly isn’t that good.  I don’t see them turning it around this year.  I’m not sure the Redskins are much better but I like them tonight +6.

Skins 28-26

Redskins-Eagles Preview + Cooley

Kevin starts the show with a recap of the NFL games yesterday and the NFC East’s prospects for two playoff teams. He weighs in on Kareem Hunt too. He goes through his keys for a Skins win tonight in Philly and follows that up with a conversation with Chris Cooley about the game. Cooley breaks down the Eagles defensive issues and talks about how the Skins attack them offensively. Kevin gets to the College Football Playoff selection, talks a little Caps, Wizards and Terps too. He finishes up the show with a look back at the famous “Body Bag” game with Andy Pollin. Kevin and Andy both pick the Skins to win to finish up the show.

Smell Test: Wknd of 11-29

WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST? 

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means later sharp money is with me.

To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:28:18 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/30/did-cowboys-just-win-the-east-van-pelt-and-svrluga-too/

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 13-5

Overall: 79-64-3

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 11-29-18  

Thursday, November 29:

Cowboys +7

Friday, November 30:

Utah +6

Northern Ill. +4

Saturday, December 1:

UL Lafayette +16.5

Fresno State +2

Clemson -27.5

Northwestern +14.5

Sunday, December 2:

Lions +10

Jags +4

Bucs +3.5

Vikings +5

Did Cowboys Just Win The East? Van Pelt And Svrluga Too

Kevin recaps Cowboys-Saints and discusses where the NFC East race stands after last night. Washington Post columnist Barry Svrluga joined the show to talk Redskins, Reuben Foster, Terps hoops, and more. Scott Van Pelt after that with his thoughts on Skins, Foster, Terps, and College Football Championship weekend. Kevin finishes up with the Smell Test….he’s 24-6 against the number over the last two and a half weeks.

The Bucket Of Dumb

Kevin and Thom continue to talk about the Reuben Foster situation, and how the Redskins handled everything on Wednesday. They talk about Maryland’s loss to Virginia, and was it actually an encouraging loss? They discuss the Wizards and everything going on around Dwight Howard. Why isn’t that getting more coverage locally? Plus, NFL Buy or Sell and a look at Thursday night’s game.

Redskins And Tone Deaf Together Again

Kevin addresses the Redskins move to claim Reuben Foster off waivers. Joe Theismann joins the show with his thoughts on the Foster decision and a lot more including Colt McCoy and the Skins’ chances at a playoff run. Chris Knoche is a guest on the show to preview tonight’s Maryland-Virginia game in College Park. Kevin does some “NFL Buy And Sell” with an interesting AFC playoff pick.

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