Thom had an uncomfortable Thanksgiving. The Caps are on a roll; Wizards too. Should the Wizards trade Beal? Thom on Colt McCoy’s game in Dallas and a discussion about whether or not McCoy can save Gruden’s job over the final five games.
Kevin recaps the NFL games yesterday including the Vikings win over the Packers and the Eagles win over the Giants in detail. Clinton Portis joined the show and talked Redskins, NFL playoff picture, and some College Football. Kevin then went through the weekend of college football games, Tiger vs Phil, and some Wizards and Terps too.
WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST?
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means later sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:30:50 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/23/better-team-won-redskins-cowboys-recap/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 7-1
Overall: 66-59-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 11-23-18
Friday, November 23:
Washington +1.5
Saturday, November 24:
UNC +7.5
Boston College -7
Miami -4.5
TCU +5
Louisville +17
Middle Tennessee State +3
Tulsa +3
Arizona +2
UNLV +14
USC +10.5
Boise State -3
Sunday, November 25:
Browns +3
49ers +3
Jets +10
Broncos +3
Vikings -3
Monday, November 26:
Titans +6
Kevin recaps the Redskins 31-23 loss in Dallas yesterday. NBC Sports Washington’s JP Finlay joins the show to discuss the game and update on Trent Williams. Kevin looks at the best College and NFL games of the weekend and off a 7-1 Smell Test week, he has 18 games in the Smell Test this week.
The Redskins will beat the Cowboys if…
- …they stop the run like they did in the first game. In the Skins’ 20-17 win last month, Zeke Elliott rushed for 33 yards on 15 carries. He’s gone for 273 yards in his last two games on 42 carries in wins over Philly and Atlanta. That’s 6.5 yards per carry. He needs to be 3-point something today. Making Dallas one-dimensional by stopping the run gives them their best chance to win.
- …Colt McCoy gives them something they didn’t have offensively with Alex Smith. In the first Dallas game, the Skins punted 6 times on 10 drives. Alex Smith completed just 14-25 for 178 yards and they were 3-12 on 3rd down. Because of it, they scored just 13 pts offensively. When Colt came in against Houston, the offensive looked different. He was quick read/quick throw which is what Gruden wants. He will take more risks yes but he’ll also make more throws that need to be made that aren’t necessarily big risk throws. I don’t think Colt McCoy will be some magical fix to the offensive issues the team has had but I do think the offense will be at the very least, more productive than it was.
- …they get off the field on 3rd down. This may surprise some of you but the Redskins are 26th in the league right now on 3rd down defense. Meantime, Dallas is 15 of 29 offensively on 3rd down the last two games. Prescott is making throws, runs, and Elliott is keeping them in good down/distance. The Skins have to be better on 3rd down or Dallas will dominate time of possession, field position, and perhaps the game.
- …they win the turnover battle. For the Redskins who are +12 (3rd best in the league), this is a must. They won the turnover battle last week and lost. They have to be plus-1 or better today. They’ve relied on it to win 6 games this year, they need more of it to get their 7th.
- …if Jay Gruden’s management of the game is an asset, not a liability. Gruden cost his team extra plays and time at the end of the Houston game because he didn’t take timeouts the right way. His clock management has been poor over the years. If it doesn’t improve, they might lose another close game because of it.
Prediction:
Dallas 20-17
To listen to yesterday’s podcast which included Chris Cooley, Scott Van Pelt, and Andy Pollin’s picks on today’s game, click below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/21/redskins-cowboys-preview-with-cooley-and-svp/
Kevin starts the show with a tongue in cheek prediction of a Wizards season turnaround off their 24-point comeback over the Clippers last night. He follows that up with “Redskins Beat Dallas If….”. Cooley joins the show with answers to what happened on the Alex Smith pick-6, the sack that ended his season, and lots more including a preview of the Dallas game. Scott Van Pelt came on and talked Tiger-Phil, College Football, Skins-Cowboys, Chiefs/Rams, and the day Clint Longley nearly killed his grandfather. Andy Pollin looked back to some memorable Skins-Dallas Thanksgiving Day games and finished up with final score predictions with Kevin.
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