It’s a Sports Fix Thursday and Thom Loverro is in. They start the show by discussing the Capitals’ win over the Penguins on Wednesday. They then move to taking a look at the best and worst from the Redskins in their first eight games of the season. Who was the best player? What was the worst moment? Plus predictions for the second half of the year. They talk about the latest news around Bryce Harper, including that the Dodgers offered the Nationals Yasiel Puig for him during the season. Scott Van Pelt joins to talk about Maryland, college football and more. They wrap up with NFL Power Polls.
Kevin talks about the Wizards’ bad loss in Dallas, Duke’s opening night statement over Kentucky, and then Tim Murray joins the show to talk about the latest college football playoff rankings. Doc Walker calls in to talk Redskins. Chelsea Janes from the Washington Post calls in to talk about the story she broke on the Nats offering Bryce Harper $300 million over 10 years. Gary Williams then called in to talk about the issues at Maryland the last few months as well as the Terps’ win last night over Delaware, Duke’s impressive debut, and some Skins and Ravens too. Kevin finished up with NFL Buy or Sell.
Thom is in and the show starts with a recap of the Cowboys’ loss to the Titans last night. The conversation turns to the significance of the Redskins’ game in Tampa on Sunday. Despite the injuries, Kevin thinks this is the moment that many of the organization’s off-season decisions must prove to be right. ESPN’s John Keim joins the show to explain who will play on the O-line Sunday. Are any teams capable of supplanting the favorites in the NFC (Saints and Rams) and AFC (Chiefs and Pats)? That plus “are the Redskins doomed if they fall behind in a game”.
What the hell happened? Kevin breaks down the Redskins’ 38-14 loss to the Falcons A to Z. JP Finlay (NBC Sports Washington) joins Kevin to talk about the seriousness of all the injuries suffered in the game and whether or not any serious consideration will be given to a quarterback change. Kevin goes Around the NFL spending time on the Rams-Saints, Packers-Pats, and Ravens-Steelers in particular. He finishes up the show with Weekend DVR recapping the Wizards’ and Caps’ weekends and going back to Saturday’s Alabama-LSU game among others.
The Redskins will beat the Falcons if….
1. …they keep doing it THEIR WAY. What’s worked three straight weeks is running the ball, stopping the run, and winning the turnover battle. This is THE formula for them. It appears to be the only formula for them right now.
2. …they realize despite the numbers, Atlanta can still run it. You may look at the Falcons and think you don’t have to stop the run this year because they haven’t run it that well. I think they’re still a very capable running team. No Freeman so far this year but Tevin Coleman is a good back. He has several runs of 15+ yards even though he’s averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards per carry. The Falcons are one of those teams that seemingly don’t even need results in the running game to be effective with boot action and play action. Matt Ryan is easily the best they’ve faced since Brees. The Skins have been in nickel much of the season so far on defense and today won’t be any different. Atlanta is one of those teams that will run it on 2nd and 10 against nickel so the Skins’ dominant defensive front will be tested at times with little in the box help. Atlanta is dangerous even when one-dimensional. They’re impossible to stop if they have everything working.
3. …Adrian Peterson has another big day. He’s carried the load on offense when they’ve won and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again today against a defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (26th in the league). The loss of Trent Williams may impact their ability to run it but I think they’ll be okay against Atlanta with Nsekhe. The Redskins have run it so many ways this year. Under center, shot gun, zone runs, counter plays, read option, speed option, and more. Running it well today keeps Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense off the field but it also will once again provide Alex Smith with easy play-action pitch and catch chances. Atlanta is hurting in their secondary so perhaps today is the day Smith gets on track.
4. …they finish plus-1 or better in turnover margin. They are plus-6 the last three games and another plus day will help. The Skins are tied for 3rd in the league right now in turnover margin; their 6 giveaways are good for 2nd best in the league behind Atlanta’s 4. Smith hasn’t thrown the ball well or moved the team consistently. His biggest contribution to the offense has been protecting the ball. The Skins have no margin for error on offense.
5. …they are better in the red zone. The Redskins are 25th in the league right now in red zone touchdown efficiency….not good. It hasn’t hurt them against their last three opponents….it will today. It won’t help that Crowder and Thompson are out again. Gruden needs to scheme up some good red zone stuff today. A 1 for 4 day will really hurt their chances.
6. …they get some calls/breaks that go their way. A holding penalty that makes it 2nd and 20 or 2nd and 15 will help. An offensive P.I that looks questionable that moves Atlanta back into a 3rd and 16 instead of 1st and 10 could derail a drive. Those calls can stop a drive dead in its tracks. Sometimes against teams like Atlanta, that’s what’s required to get off the field.
7. …they get pass rush pressure on Matt Ryan. Interior pressure against that offensive line is a good bet today. Ryan has been sacked 20 times this year and a lot of it is because of what Cooley told me the other day…they’ve really struggled from guard to guard (interior O-line play). The Skins have 21 sacks in 7 games. Getting to Ryan especially on 3rd down could ultimately be the deciding factor in this game. If they don’t get to him, I don’t see the Skins’ secondary holding up against Jones, Sanu, Ridley, etc. Those guys are going to get open and if Ryan has time, Atlanta will put up some big numbers. I think this is a week where Manusky gets super aggressive.
Prediction:
Redskins 23-20
To listen to this and more from Friday’s podcast, click below and go to the 5:44 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/02/redskins-keys-to-going-6-2-plus-scott-van-pelt/
WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST?
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means late sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:12:20 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/02/redskins-keys-to-going-6-2-plus-scott-van-pelt/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 4-7
Overall: 49-44-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 11-3-18
Saturday, November 3:
Maryland +2.5
Nebraska +18
Air Force +6.5
Baylor +8
Tulane +7
Purdue -2.5
Michigan -10.5
Washington -10
Sunday, November 4:
Lions +5.5
Browns +8
Ravens -2.5
Broncos -1
***Rams -1.5 (Added Late)***
To listen to Chris Cooley break down the Skins-Falcons game, click below and go to the 43:10 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/31/cooley-and-kevin-on-ha-ha-maryland-and-more/
Windows Nation
