The Redskins will beat the Cowboys if….

1. …they play a clean game again.  Last week is very likely going to be the formula for the Redskins at least in the short-term.  At this point of the season, Alex Smith is not ready nor is his offense ready to throw the ball to win, especially against good defensive teams like Dallas.  Last week, they won the old-fashioned way.  They were +3 turnover margin, didn’t commit any dumb penalties, dominated field position, played well on special teams, stopped the run, and stayed balanced on offense.  Another clean game and they’ll have a chance to win today.
2. …they run the football.  I don’t know if they can but they’ll certainly need to do it to have success offensively.  Dallas is 7^th in the league in rush defense but 2^nd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry.  The Cowboys are getting healthier too with Sean Lee due back today.  The Redskins have run it well in three games and won all of them.  They didn’t run it well in two games and lost both.  If they can’t run it at least a little bit to keep them in good down/distance, it’ll be a long day against Dallas’ very good pass rush.
3. …Chris Thompson is healthy and is used as an extension of the running game.  They really need Thompson today because I think using Thompson on play-action check-downs or quick swing passes on any down/distance allowing him to make some plays could be a difference-making strategy for the Skins.  Early-down short throws to Thompson allowing his speed and elusiveness to replace a running play could be very effective.  Yes, the Dallas linebackers are good and fast but Thompson is the one player you can guarantee touches for and his touches can lead to yards and first-downs.  I would love to see 12-15+ touches for Thompson today.
4. …they make the Cowboys one-dimensional on offense.  Dallas got Prescott into the run game last week and it was a big help for their play-action passes.  Forcing Prescott to beat them with his arm is a winning situation for the Skins but that will require them to stop all forms of Dallas runs.
5. …they win the field-position battle.  They dominated field position against the Panthers and while it didn’t lead to a ton of points, it led to enough for the win.  Good punting, good punt coverage and being able to move the ball out of bad field position situations with a few first downs even if you don’t score will be big today.  You can’t be worried about checking it down on a 3^rd down if nothing is there and punting.  Alex Smith is good at that and won’t force things if they’re not available.  Dallas isn’t an offense at this point that you have to worry about keeping pace with in terms of scoring.  It may not sound very sexy, but winning the field-position battle on a windy day like today will go a long way towards a win.  Penalties on returns will hurt more today than in most games.  A 3rd-down sack rather than a check-down for 10 yards on 3rd and long is the difference between punting from your own 15 or 35.  These things will matter a lot today.

Prediction:

Cowboys 20-19

Podcast:

Friday’s podcast featured a lengthy interview with Mike Shanahan.  He previews the game today and a lot more.  It starts at the 46:53 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/19/skins-cowboys-previews-predictions-possibilities/

The Wizards lost their opener to the Heat 113-112.  Here are a few takeaways.

1.  It’s hard to win when the opponent gets 22 offensive rebounds.  The Wizards went small a lot but box-outs were more the issue than size disadvantage.
2.  Kelly Olynyk’s put-back game-winner off Wade’s miss was too easy.  Morris was guarding him and never put a body on him.  A shame because Wall played great defense on Wade forcing a very tough shot.
3.  The Wizards’ final offensive possession wasn’t good enough but something we’ve seen before.  John Wall was the only player to touch the ball. He apparently got the switch he wanted with McGruder but McGruder played off and gave up the 3-point attempt.  The shot looked good and it would’ve iced the game but that’s not what the Wizards should be looking for in that spot.  I’m not asking for a play or a set, just would like to see some ball movement to make the defense move.  Settling for a Wall 3-point attempt (he was 1-6) with the game on the line has never worked.  Perhaps Brooks wants Wall to get it to the rim in that situation but still, moving the defense with some ball movement to start the possession would make that easier to accomplish.  Two of the final three possessions featured Wall as the only player to touch the ball.
4. I thought the effort defensively was decent minus the rebounding for much of the night but they still aren’t consistent enough possession by possession.  They gave up some easy back-doors overplaying and denying with no paint help.  The Heat shot 39.2% from the floor which Scott Brooks will take every night but the offensive rebounds just killed them.  Wall at times looked super interested in defending.  I liked his intensity tonight.  Obviously it should be there for the opener but he had 3 blocked shots and at least two more close-outs that affected the shot attempt including Wade’s last one.
5. 10 missed free throws (29-39) didn’t help.  They have too many good shooters to be less than 79-80% from the FT line as an average.
6. Otto Porter didn’t attempt a 3-pointer.  The analytic geeks will throw a tantrum over it but won’t be able to explain why.  Porter played well tonight.  I didn’t have a major problem with his overall game.  He did a ton of things that help a team win.  I would like him to get more offensive opportunities but the Wizards don’t and shouldn’t run too much for him.  They don’t really run many sets for anybody.  Scott Brooks shouldn’t be angst-ridden over Otto Porter’s 3-point attempts.  It’s a numbers/stats take from people who wouldn’t know how to screen a screener for cash.  If they rebound which they didn’t tonight, they’ll get more chances in transition which is one of the places Porter has gotten good 3-point chances in the past.  When they get Howard back, he’ll play less at the 4-spot when they go small and that will give him more chances. Otto Porter has shot a high percentage from the 3-point line in the past because a) he’s a good shooter b) he takes “good” threes which for him are attempts with feet set, catch, shoot, and very often unguarded on the catch.  If he starts passing on those threes, then I’ll have a problem.
7. I like Jeff Green.  High IQ player who will contribute a lot to this team.
8. I still like how hard Kelly Oubre competes.
9. Still too many turnovers in key spots like Wall’s errant pass up 4 with 4 minutes left.  McGruder hit a three on the other end….that was a big swing.
10. To hear my interview with Scott Brooks yesterday, click here/go to the 12:45 mark.  https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/17/scott-brooks-and-mike-wilbon/