Smell Test: Weekend of Dec 21

WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST? 

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means later sharp money is with me.

To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:07:17 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/21/cooleys-call/

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 3-0

Overall: 96-71-4

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 12-21-18  

Friday, December 21:

BYU -12.5

Saturday, December 22:

Titans -10

Ravens +4

Sunday, December 23:

Texans +1.5

Jaguars +4

Bills +13.5

Lions +6

49ers +4

Steelers +6

Seahawks +2.5

Skins-Titans: Just Short Of Unforgettable

Kevin recaps the Redskins’ gut-wrenching loss to the Titans. JP Finlay/NBC Sports Washington joins the show from Nashville to discuss the game and the harsh post-game comments from DJ Swearinger about Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky. You’ll hear Jay Gruden’s post-game press conference where he got choked up at the end. Kevin goes through the Skins’ remaining long-shot playoff scenarios and touches on the Ravens’ lights-out defensive performance in their win over the Chargers.

Redskins-Titans Preview and Pick

The Redskins will beat the Titans if….

  1.  …they can run the football a little bit.  It won’t be easy against the Titans who held the Giants last week and the Jaguars the week before to less than 3 yards per carry.  Both of those teams had limited pass options (Giants didn’t have OBJ) allowing the Titans to load up the box and dare them to run.  They’ll do that today more likely than not against a team without most of their best pass receiving options.  Crowder may be the only recognizable name among pass catchers today.  If the Skins can run it at least enough to stay out of bad down/distance situations, their chances of making a few first downs and moving the football will be enhanced.
  2. …they are plus-3 or better in turnover margin.  Last week I said it had to be +2 or better to have a chance and it ended up exactly +2 and they barely won.  Tennessee is a much better team playing for postseason stakes.  If the Titans don’t self-destruct, the Skins have no chance.  I would be shocked if the Redskins were in position to win this game today without a substantial turnover margin advantage.
  3. …they win the field position battle.  This has been part of the formula when they’ve won this year.  Tress Way has been terrific and probably deserved the NFC Pro Bowl punter slot.  His punts have impacted games positively in a major way even in the teams’ losses.  Forcing the Titans to go long distances to score should pay off.
  4. …avoid bad Special Teams plays.  Last week’s 74-yard punt return for a touchdown before the half could’ve easily been the difference in the game if not for a few fortunate bounces/deflections late in the game.  A big punt return today will be hard to overcome if you believe like I do that points will be at a premium.  Dustin Hopkins was 3 for 3 last week and they needed all of them.  He can’t miss one today and more likely than not if they head into the 4th quarter in a close game, he’s already made 2 to 3 at that point.

Prediction:

I really believe that last week’s win over Jacksonville was it for the year.  I give them credit for showing up and playing well after taking a beating the week before against the Giants.  The opponent helped.  Jacksonville’s offense in particular was god awful.  Tennessee needs the game and they are home.  The Redskins need it too but are just down too many key players to win a game like this.

Titans 27-6

***If you want to listen to Chris Cooley and I discuss the game in more detail, you can listen by clicking below and going to the 19:56 mark.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/12/21/cooleys-call/

Cooley’s Call

Chris Cooley joins Kevin to preview the Redskins-Titans game. Cooley had a crazy vision of a Skins’ game-winning touchdown which is must-listen. They preview the entire NFL weekend too with Cooley talking a ton about the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Kevin has 10 picks on his Smell Test and Andy Pollin joins him for “Skins Score and More”.

Best Show In Town

Kevin and Thom open the show talking Caps-Pens and then briefly discuss how repulsive the Wizards have become. They talk Montae Nicholson, Joe Flacco, the Redskins and their chances at Tennessee on Saturday. Scott Van Pelt joins the show to talk about a horrible college basketball beat last night and more. NFL Power Poll and more NFL discussion too.

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