It’s a Sports Fix Tuesday as Thom Loverro is in. They talk about the Monday Night Football game and how impressive Aaron Rodgers was before moving on to the Redskins. What is Thom’s take on Alex Smith? Could the Redskins be 5-2 two weeks from now? And they argue about what could happen in the future, particularly if this ends up not being a playoff team. Plus, Coaching Blunders and more.
The Redskins held on for a big win against the Panthers. Some fans were a little bit unhappy about the second half and how close the game became but Kevin had a different opinion. Adrian Peterson was great, who else stood out on the team? How was Jay Gruden’s coaching? Kevin also talks about what the Redskins need to do this week, as it is Dallas Week. After taking a few of your calls, JP Finlay joins to give his recap of what happened Sunday afternoon and what the biggest keys were to the win. Kevin then goes Around the NFL, including a close look at the Sunday Night Football game between the Patriots and Chiefs, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Buccaneers/Falcons game and more. He then wraps up with Weekend DVR with a look across college football including the Maryland win over Rutgers and some major action in the SEC.
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means that later sharp money is with me.
Also, these picks were released initially on Friday’s show/podcast. To hear it, listen starting at the 1:30:42 mark here-https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/12/lock-it-up-skins-will-beat-panthers-plus-cooley/
Good Luck!
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 6-2
Overall: 29-23-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-12-18
Friday, October 12:
Tulsa +7
Saturday, October 13:
Virginia +6.5
South Carolina +2.5
UNC +6
ODU +3.5
Liberty +9
USC -7
Michigan -9
Nebraska +3.5
Indiana +5.5
Memphis +4.5
Vanderbilt +7
Michigan State +13.5
BYU -11
Sunday, October 14:
Browns +1
Bucs +3
Texans -10
Monday, October 15:
49ers +9.5
The Redskins will beat the Panthers if….
- …they are balanced on offense. If it’s not clear to those of you who that thought the Skins had traded for Dan Marino, it should be now. Alex Smith has succeeded on good teams with good talent and with a legitimate running game. On his first two winning teams, the 49ers had the 8th ranked rush offense in 2011 and the 4th ranked rush offense in 2012. After being replaced by Kapernick midway through the 2012 season, he went to Kansas City where he quarterbacked the Chiefs to six straight winning seasons. In 5 of those 6 seasons, the Chiefs had a top-10 rushing attack with the likes of Jamal Charles, Spencer Ware, and Kareem Hunt. Add to the rush attack he always had, he also played behind good offensive lines, for a good offensive coach, with an elite tight end, and for the last 2 years, talent and speed on the outside. Jay Gruden and Bill Callahan haven’t been great at scheming up a running game in Washington. Hopefully the brain trust in Ashburn realized what many of our fans didn’t realize before the trade. The realization that while the last guy (Cousins) put up numbers and gave the offense a chance with no threat of a running game, the new guy doesn’t do that. Gruden thinks his system is about his schemes as much as it is about the quarterback who directs them. This year with this quarterback will test that theory. Smith is a good quarterback who leads well and performs well with a good supporting cast. To date, the Skins haven’t had the supporting cast. The offense is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 22nd in the NFL. IMO, part of their rushing attack must include Smith himself. Reid consistently used Smith as a run threat. Gruden should too. I’d like to see more read-option, speed-option, and anything else that creates an 11 on 11 running attack.
- …they stop the run. The Panthers lead the league at 154 yards rushing per game. McCaffery is the star many thought he would become as a versatile pass receiver (7 catches per game) and runner (5.2 per carry). Cam is running early and often averaging 4.6 per carry on close to 9 carries per game. It’s a combination for him of zone-read, designed runs, and scrambles. Norv isn’t messing around. He knows the value of posing Cam as a run-threat and what that does to a defense. By the way, CJ Anderson is averaging 5.3 yds per carry. The Redskins have a solid defensive front with Allen and Payne in particular. They can slow the Panthers down and by doing it, force Cam to win with his arm on 3rd and long. Too many 2nd down and threes, 2nd down and fours, and the Skins are in big trouble.
- …they fix their coverage problems. Wow have they had issues on the back end defensively. Bad communication on a ton of pick and faux pick plays against the Colts. Busted coverage against the Packers at least once on the long touchdown to Allison. Monday night was a disaster with one busted coverage after another. Communication appears to be a big problem. Cam’s security blanket Gregg Olsen may be back for the Panthers. The Redskins have looked disorganized and poorly coached in their secondary so far. It’s got to get better.
- …they show some fight after being embarrassed. The Redskins were totally humiliated in New Orleans. They are better than what they showed. This game today is near “must-win” but certainly is “must play well”. The NFC East weakness doesn’t matter. Competing for a division title that might be won with an 8-8 or 9-7 record is less important than signs that the team and franchise are headed in the right direction. Losing today would be bad. Playing like they did on Monday night and losing would be worse. We’ve seen things unravel quickly around here especially when a head coach appears to be in trouble. A win today would put the unraveling on hold.
Prediction:
Redskins 23-20
The Podcast:
Cooley was on the show. So was Andy Pollin. We previewed Redskins-Panthers. Smell Test is on fire….12-2-1 in the NFL over the last four weeks. It went 10-4 yesterday. There are three NFL picks today and one tomorrow night.
Kevin really likes the Redskins’ chances to bounce back and beat the Panthers on Sunday. Kevin goes through the keys to beating the Panthers and reveals what happened at halftime between Josh Norman and Jay Gruden Monday night in New Orleans. Kevin goes through the biggest games of the weekend for Friday Football Quick Picks. Stanford Steve from the Scott Van Pelt Show on ESPN joins Kevin for some intense college football gambling discussion. Then, Cooley calls in to discuss what happened in New Orleans on Monday, talks about his recently launched podcast/film breakdown, and they preview Skins/Panthers. Andy Pollin comes in to look back at some memorable Redskins/Panthers games. Kevin then unveils one of the highest volume Smell Tests he’s ever had…18 college/NFL Smell Test picks this weekend! Kevin finishes up with Redskins Score and More.
After starting with the Capitals win over Las Vegas, they discuss the Alex Smith situation and if Colt McCoy is even mildly an option for the Redskins. Was Monday night an aberration and what’s the outlook for Sunday against the Panthers? Brian McNally joins to talk about the fallout from the loss against the Saints. Scott Van Pelt calls in to give his take on the GOAT quarterback discussion and the state of college football right now. Plus, NFL Power Polls.
Windows Nation
