Thom is in for a special Sports Fix Wednesday. They discuss Jay Gruden and Bruce Allen’s hot seat and Alex Smith’s stunningly bad performance. Charley Casserly joins to give his take on this week’s game and the season as a whole. They then ask what happens to the team if Adrian Peterson is injured. Thom gives his thoughts on the MLB playoffs plus Kevin’s Coaching Blunders.
Kevin breaks down the Redskins’ embarrassing loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football and compares it to other debacles in the past. His game recap includes very little good and lots of not-so-good. He eviscerates a confused defense and calls Alex Smith’s performance brutal. JP Finlay calls in from New Orleans to talk about what he saw in the Superdome last night. Kevin also discusses the back-and-forth on Twitter between Josh Norman and Michael Thomas. He also goes back to Jason Garrett’s 4th down decision to punt in overtime in the Cowboys’ loss to Houston.
The Redskins will beat the Saints if….
- …they move the football consistently. They’ve been an inconsistent offensive football team so far but they’re playing against one of the weaker defenses in the league. Converting third-downs keeps the chains and clock moving which results in Drew Brees being off the field. I trust the defense more this year but any defense knows that the formula for beating the Saints includes keeping Brees off the field. In last year’s memorable meltdown in New Orleans, the Skins rolled up 456 yards and 31 points through just over three quarters. They blitzed Cousins and he made them pay at every turn. They ran the ball with Perine (117 yards) which ate clock and they didn’t have a 3 & out until the 4th quarter. The New Orleans defense is worse this year than last so far. It ranks 24th overall and 28th on 3rd-down. The Skins’ offense is a work in progress but this should be a chance for a breakout game. A lot of tonight’s success will be on Alex Smith. He needs to read it, get it out, and when necessary, use his legs to make plays. I hope Gruden runs more read-option and even some of the speed option stuff we saw in the opener against the Cardinals. Andy Reid never hesitated to run him in Kansas City if it was necessary. The Skins are relatively healthy and have enough weapons to do some damage even without a legit deep threat. Reed, Thompson, Crowder, and Peterson are more than most teams have. Tonight needs to be an offensive night or they’re in trouble.
- …they catch the 1-2 balls that Brees will put up for grabs. Brees has not thrown an interception this year but Brees over the course of his career will give the opponent 1-2 interception opportunities per game. He takes risks, throws into tight windows, and until last year, had gone 12 straight seasons with double-digit picks. The Skins have to make him pay if/when he makes that occasional risky throw that he shouldn’t make. A plus-2 in the turnover margin would go a long way to having a chance to win the game.
- …Jay Gruden & staff are on top of their game. Last year’s painful 15-point throwaway in the Superdome was on a defense that crumbled but on a coaching staff that bungled and stumbled with the game on the line. Gruden got conservative; so did Manusky. They played soft coverage against Brees up 15 and paid for it. Gruden ran the ball three times when they needed one first down to ice the game. The 3rd and less than a yard was a slow-developing running play with the crowd roaring that got blown up. Sneak it! You can’t ever think about giving the ball back to the Saints in a close game even if they have no timeouts. You have to win it on offense. Jay didn’t recognize that. He also had a stupid challenge on an obvious Fleener catch that cost him a timeout he would desperately need when he didn’t know the 10-sec runoff rule at the end of the regulation. That botched situation could’ve been saved with the timeout he gave away for a non-sense challenge and they still would’ve had a chance to win it before overtime. You think that game has stuck with me a little? Look, let’s be honest here. Jay Gruden has been a liability in close games more than an asset. He’s a nice guy and a good offensive mind but when it comes to the little things, he’s often a day late/dollar short. That must change this year or a somewhat talented team will be wasted.
Prediction:
Saints 30-23
The Podcast:
Clinton Portis was a guest today as was Andy Pollin. Lots of NFL Sunday recap plus a discussion about where Drew Brees ranks among the all-time greats.
It’s a big night for the Redskins, as they play on Monday Night Football. First, Kevin talks about the historic nature of tonight as he looks at where Drew Brees ranks on the all-time quarterback list. Then he goes Around the NFL, where he talks about the Browns, Rams, Vikings and more, plus he actually agrees with Jason Garrett’s decision. From there he segues into “Redskins Win If” where he breaks down what he needs to see from the players and the coach if the Redskins are going to come away with a big win today. Clinton Portis then joins to give his take on if the Redskins can win against CP’s childhood team. Following Portis, Kevin goes through Weekend DVR, where he talks Maryland/Michigan and the rest of the college football slate, and has something to say about the Braves win. Finally, Andy Pollin sits in to look back at the 2012 game against the Saints, and both give their predictions on the game.
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means that sharp money is with me. Good Luck!
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 5-7-1
Overall: 23-21-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-6-18
Saturday, October 6:
Pitt +3.5
Florida +2
Miss State +3.5
Arizona State +2.5
Michigan State -10
Sunday, October 7:
Lions +1
Jets pick
Seahawks +7
Listen to the Friday podcast right here- http://TheKevinSheehanShow.com
There is some growing optimism about this Redskin season. A 2-1 start with a win over the Packers will inspire a level of hopefulness. Monday night’s game in New Orleans may provide the justification for that hope or shatter it.
The Redskins haven’t had many “prove it” early-season games like this one in recent years. Last year’s game against the Chiefs in week 4 felt similar but that’s the only one I can think of that really compares.
The Skins haven’t started 2-1 since 2011 and that beginning with Rex Grossman at the helm seemed fraudulent to all who were watching it. The way the Redskins play in New Orleans will be a substantive season signal one way or another.
For starters, the early-season optimism stems mostly from a sense that the defense is much better than it’s been in recent years. It’s not uncommon to hear people talk about the Redskins’ defense as one of the best in the NFL right now.
It’s currently ranked 3rd in the league even though that could be a bit deceiving considering they played an Arizona team that was woefully unprepared for the season-opener. Throw in the fact that Green Bay dropped 4-5 passes from a wounded Aaron Rodgers as a reason to put the breaks on talk that the defense has somehow gone from bad to elite in less than a year.
The talent is growing though. Allen and Payne are legit. Everyone around them benefits from their presence. The first real test though of just how good the Skins’ D is comes against Drew Brees and a New Orleans offense ranked in the top 4 of every offensive category so far. If you’re looking for a signal that this year is different, then the Skins’ resurgent defense will slow down the Saints.
Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense isn’t very good. It ranks 28th on 3rd-down; 24th overall. The Skins’ offense has had three good quarters out of the twelve its played. If last year’s team included a good to very good defense like the one we may be watching this year, it would’ve won 10 games.
This year’s offense appears to be a work in progress at best but there’s reason to believe that the work will eventually produce. For the first time since the Shanahans were here, there is an actual running-game threat thanks to an aging but inspired hall of famer. Add to that, a healthy Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, and Chris Thompson give the Skins enough weapons even without an obvious stretch-the-field deep threat to become reliable.
If you’re looking for a signal that the Skins’ offense is good enough to contribute to a defensive-led “playoff” season, then big production against a sub-par Saints’ defense is a must.
Imagine the Skins’ defense is the first to slow down the Saints explosive offense. Imagine Alex Smith and company take advantage of a N.O. defense filled with holes. Now imagine that the combination of both leads to a 31-21 win in the Superdome to get to 3-1.
If those images become reality, the Redskins will have signaled they are a contender in the NFC.
Windows Nation
