Kevin opens the show talking about Mark Sanchez’s smooth press conference from yesterday. He also reminds everyone of the 2009 rumored attempt by the Skins to trade up to draft Sanchez. Thom called in from vacation with interesting information he obtained from the Santa Clara, California DA’s office on Reuben Foster’s first alleged domestic violence incident. Scott Van Pelt joined the show for a conversation about Terps’ new football coach Mike Locksley and the show finished up with an NFL Power Poll.
Kevin talks Redskins change and Jay Gruden’s Kapernick answers to start the show. ESPN’s John Keim is a guest talking Skins and what’s next if they don’t make a late-season run. Maryland basketball head coach Mark Turgeon is a guest on the show with the Terps ranked 23rd and headed to Purdue tomorrow night. Kevin discusses new Terps football coach Mike Locksley and does some “Coaching Blunders” and “NFL Buy and Sell” too.
Kevin recaps in detail the awful Redskins’ 28-13 loss to the Eagles. He brings in NBC Sports Washington’s JP Finlay to discuss what’s next after Colt McCoy and more. Kevin updates the NFC playoff picture, talks briefly about the Wizards win in New York, and then mentions the retirement of one of the best against the spread college football coaches of all time.
The Redskins will beat the Eagles if…..
- …the defense does its part. In their last 4 games, the Skins’ D is near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per play (28th), yards allowed per pass attempt (30th), and they are currently 28th in the league on 3rd-down. Not sure why, but the Eagles haven’t been very good offensively so far. They are capable but Wentz and company just haven’t gotten the big plays they got a year ago. They are 19th overall and 23rd in points per game. DJ Swearinger called teammates out after the loss in Dallas. I can’t tell you that he called out new teammate HaHa Clinton Dix specifically but I’m sure that Dix hasn’t played well since getting traded to DC. If the defense steps up and holds Philly to their average of 20.6 points per game, they’ll have a decent chance to win the game.
- …if they let Colt rip it. The Eagles pass defense is 28th in the league. Philly is injured in their secondary with a ton of inexperience on the field tonight minus Malcolm Jenkins. The Eagles have been target practice in recent weeks. Blake Bortles threw for nearly 300 yards last month in London against them. Gruden needs to find the right match-ups and do what he does best….get people open in the passing game. He needs to scheme it up tonight against a team that can’t cover. I want to see an aggressive mind set offensively not just tonight, but the rest of the way.
- …if Colt throws less than 2 picks. Yes I want him to throw it but no, he can’t throw 3 interceptions like he did in Dallas. No more than one turnover from the QB tonight.
- …if they tackle Corey Clement. He breaks a ton of tackles as a runner and pass receiver and occasionally as a kickoff returner. He may get more touches tonight with Josh Adams banged up.
- …they do the other stuff they’ve done when they’ve won. Win the turnover battle. They got none back against Dallas and gave it away three times. Win the field position battle. They’ve done a good job of that this year. Special teams have been an underrated part of their six wins. Good punting when they have to punt, good coverage, and no missed field goals. All of the above have been crucial in their wins.
Prediction:
Philly isn’t that good. I don’t see them turning it around this year. I’m not sure the Redskins are much better but I like them tonight +6.
Skins 28-26
Kevin starts the show with a recap of the NFL games yesterday and the NFC East’s prospects for two playoff teams. He weighs in on Kareem Hunt too. He goes through his keys for a Skins win tonight in Philly and follows that up with a conversation with Chris Cooley about the game. Cooley breaks down the Eagles defensive issues and talks about how the Skins attack them offensively. Kevin gets to the College Football Playoff selection, talks a little Caps, Wizards and Terps too. He finishes up the show with a look back at the famous “Body Bag” game with Andy Pollin. Kevin and Andy both pick the Skins to win to finish up the show.
WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST?
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means later sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:28:18 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/30/did-cowboys-just-win-the-east-van-pelt-and-svrluga-too/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 13-5
Overall: 79-64-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 11-29-18
Thursday, November 29:
Cowboys +7
Friday, November 30:
Utah +6
Northern Ill. +4
Saturday, December 1:
UL Lafayette +16.5
Fresno State +2
Clemson -27.5
Northwestern +14.5
Sunday, December 2:
Lions +10
Jags +4
Bucs +3.5
Vikings +5
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