Kevin recaps the Redskins 31-23 loss in Dallas yesterday. NBC Sports Washington’s JP Finlay joins the show to discuss the game and update on Trent Williams. Kevin looks at the best College and NFL games of the weekend and off a 7-1 Smell Test week, he has 18 games in the Smell Test this week.
The Redskins will beat the Cowboys if…
- …they stop the run like they did in the first game. In the Skins’ 20-17 win last month, Zeke Elliott rushed for 33 yards on 15 carries. He’s gone for 273 yards in his last two games on 42 carries in wins over Philly and Atlanta. That’s 6.5 yards per carry. He needs to be 3-point something today. Making Dallas one-dimensional by stopping the run gives them their best chance to win.
- …Colt McCoy gives them something they didn’t have offensively with Alex Smith. In the first Dallas game, the Skins punted 6 times on 10 drives. Alex Smith completed just 14-25 for 178 yards and they were 3-12 on 3rd down. Because of it, they scored just 13 pts offensively. When Colt came in against Houston, the offensive looked different. He was quick read/quick throw which is what Gruden wants. He will take more risks yes but he’ll also make more throws that need to be made that aren’t necessarily big risk throws. I don’t think Colt McCoy will be some magical fix to the offensive issues the team has had but I do think the offense will be at the very least, more productive than it was.
- …they get off the field on 3rd down. This may surprise some of you but the Redskins are 26th in the league right now on 3rd down defense. Meantime, Dallas is 15 of 29 offensively on 3rd down the last two games. Prescott is making throws, runs, and Elliott is keeping them in good down/distance. The Skins have to be better on 3rd down or Dallas will dominate time of possession, field position, and perhaps the game.
- …they win the turnover battle. For the Redskins who are +12 (3rd best in the league), this is a must. They won the turnover battle last week and lost. They have to be plus-1 or better today. They’ve relied on it to win 6 games this year, they need more of it to get their 7th.
- …if Jay Gruden’s management of the game is an asset, not a liability. Gruden cost his team extra plays and time at the end of the Houston game because he didn’t take timeouts the right way. His clock management has been poor over the years. If it doesn’t improve, they might lose another close game because of it.
Prediction:
Dallas 20-17
To listen to yesterday’s podcast which included Chris Cooley, Scott Van Pelt, and Andy Pollin’s picks on today’s game, click below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/21/redskins-cowboys-preview-with-cooley-and-svp/
Kevin starts the show with a tongue in cheek prediction of a Wizards season turnaround off their 24-point comeback over the Clippers last night. He follows that up with “Redskins Beat Dallas If….”. Cooley joins the show with answers to what happened on the Alex Smith pick-6, the sack that ended his season, and lots more including a preview of the Dallas game. Scott Van Pelt came on and talked Tiger-Phil, College Football, Skins-Cowboys, Chiefs/Rams, and the day Clint Longley nearly killed his grandfather. Andy Pollin looked back to some memorable Skins-Dallas Thanksgiving Day games and finished up with final score predictions with Kevin.
Thom is excited about his favorite Redskin Colt McCoy getting his chance and both he and Kevin believe there’s a good chance the offense will be more productive with him. Before that though, they discuss the crazy Monday Night Football game and ask if this is the future of the NFL. They also discuss what will constitute success for McCoy over the final 6 games and whether or not that could lead to an offseason quarterback controversy. Then comes Thom’s plea for Ted Leonsis to sell the Wizards!
Kevin recaps the Skins’ 23-21 loss to Houston, the loss of Alex Smith, and the chances with Colt McCoy moving forward. NBC Sports Washington’s JP Finlay joins the show, Kevin goes Around the NFL, and then recaps the Maryland-Ohio State thriller as well as the Wizards painful weekend on Weekend DVR.
The Redskins will beat Houston if….
1. …they win big on the turnover battle again. The Redskins need another big turnover margin day to beat Houston. My guess is plus-2 or better is necessary. The Skins are plus-11 overall on the season. That plus-11 has come in their 6 wins; they are even up in their 3 losses. So even when the turnover margin has been a push, it hasn’t been good enough to win. It’s obvious, they need plus turnover margins to win games. Their offense hasn’t been good enough to overcome their opponents without help. At least not yet.
2. …they get home with their pass rush on 3rd down. Watson has been sacked 30 times this year-8th most in the league. They are the only winning team in the league that has allowed anywhere near that many sacks. A lot them come because Watson tries to make plays running around, creating time, extending plays. With that said, those 30 sacks have led to an unimpressive 3rd down make percentage. They convert just 38% of the time on 3rd down. However, the Redskins haven’t been a good 3rd down defense. Let me repeat because contrary to much of the fan and media discussion that has elevated the Skins’ defense to elite levels, the Redskins aren’t a very good 3rd-down defense right now. They are currently 28th in the league on 3rd down. 28th! They have to be better today. Getting to a quarterback that has been dropped and hit a ton this year will go a long way towards getting the Texans off the field. A 4-5 sack day with lots of hits could lead to the turnovers they need. Do all of the above and a they can win a 19-16 type of game.
3. …they win the field goal battle. What? Field goals? Yes. The Skins have been on the right side of the field goal war this year. They are 11th in made field goal percentage while their opponents are 28th. Think about the Dallas miss that would’ve forced overtime and what two missed Tampa kicks meant last week. They’ve been living right this year. The Texans are 27th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. Watson, Miller, and Hopkins are going to make plays between the 20s but the Skins proved last week to pretty good at “bend don’t break” defense. On the flip side, while Dustin Hopkins hasn’t been healthy, they need him to continue to be accurate. To win today, he may need 3 to 4 made kicks, a couple from long range.
4. …they are versatile offensively. If the Skins are going to have any success offensively, they have to keep Houston off balance. The Texans are 2nd in the league in defensive yards per carry. They’re going to shut down the run if there isn’t some creativity in the offense this week. The Skins can’t get behind the chains or Tress Way will have 7-8 punts in this game. By the way, Tress Way’s punts have had significant positive impact on field position this year. You just don’t want him forced to kick more than 4-5 times. More than that means very little offense.
5. …they stop the run. Don’t let Houston become two-dimensional in this game or it’s going to be a long day. Hopkins and company are really good and Houston can throw it to win it but if Watson has a running game, the boots and play-action will be killers.
6. …they get some crowd support? Josh Norman wasn’t wrong. He just doesn’t understand the baggage of the last 20 years. It would be nice to get help from a crowd excited about their 6-3 record. The Skins haven’t been 7-3 in 22 years.
Prediction:
Texans 24-16
I don’t love this match-up. I see a tough day for the offense and enough Houston offense to win the game. Houston turnovers and mistakes would create the opportunity for the Redskins to win the game but I like Houston today.
To listen to an even more detailed preview of the game, click below and go to the 11:12 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/16/redskins-texans-preview-ross-tucker-and-svp-too/
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