It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.
Have fun and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only.
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 1-4
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 9-8-18
Saturday, September 8:
Duke +3
Kansas +5
Miami-Ohio -1
Sunday, September 9
Bucs +10
Cowboys +3
49ers +6.5
Browns +4
Seahawks +3
Bills +7.5
Thirty minutes before kickoff, couple of quick thoughts on why point spreads move and what it should indicate to bettors.
Other than a major injury to a very important player, a big move of a point spread (at least 1.5 points or more) is almost always a reaction to sharp bets, not public bets. A sharp bet is a bet placed by a respected bettor. There aren’t many of them but the few dozen or so “sharps” that exist can move a point spread by simply betting money on one side.
It’s often difficult to measure the sharp-influenced moves for Week 1 because the opening lines were put out long before training camp even started. However, here are a couple of late moves an hour before kickoff that are interesting.
One more thing to watch during the course of the season. When the public is lined up on one side and the line is moving against it, that’s an even stronger indication of sharp money moving a line. It’s also a huge fit for my Smell Test.
A great example came yesterday when Kansas went from +7 a few days ago to +3 just before kickoff. Heavy public money was coming in on Central Michigan because Kansas had lost to Nichols State a week earlier and hadn’t won a road game in 9 years. Sharp money on Kansas moved the point spread down while the public was pounding Central Michigan. Kansas won the game 31-7. Sharps won, public lost.
Kevin breaks down the dominant win in Arizona, talks Rodgers comeback at Lambeau, takes you around the NFL, talks the 2-0 Terps, and has JP Finlay/NBC Sports Washington on the show to discuss Skins-Cards.
The opener is here….finally. What a difference a year makes. No QB franchise tag drama and on paper, the most talented team of the Jay Gruden era starts a season today in Arizona.
Incredible to think that Gruden is entering his 5th season. If there’s anything that would indicate that Dan Snyder has changed at least a little bit is that Gruden is still here despite a 28-35-1 record. Patience? Yes, even the most cynical would say it’s the most amount of self-control we’ve seen ownership exhibit in two decades. At least as it relates to the head coaching position.
With that said, Gruden needs a good season (9-7 or better) and a fast start to be back next year. The fast start has been a problem in all four of his seasons.
The Skins will beat Arizona later today if Jay Gruden has his team prepared for a real game. Gruden’s handling of this preseason reeked of same old same old. I get completely that NFL preseason is fools gold. Hardly anything we see in August translates to September and beyond. However, Gruden seems to be far too comfortable with his 0-4 opening day record. His preseason script of barely playing anybody that he will rely on to perform in a real game is all too familiar.
He tried to blame turnovers and bad plays for past season opening losses the other day. I disagree. The losses to Houston in 2014, Miami in 2015, the Steelers in 2016, and the Eagles last year were on him. Not one of his teams in any of those games appeared ready for the season to begin. The start to the Philly game last year and the Pittsburgh game in 2016 were nauseating to watch.
Today is on him too. There should be a sense of urgency for an opener that he’s never appeared to instill in his team. I get that today is just one of sixteen but if it resembles the last four openers, he’ll have a ton of explaining to do in Ashburn.
The Redskins are desperate to sell tickets and have admitted as much. A poor showing today against a team that is predicted to struggle this year won’t make management very happy. They have a home opener next weekend with plenty of tickets available.
Gruden has the quarterback he wants and a defense that on paper should be the best Skins’ D in over a decade.
Health is always a factor. They’re healthy today.
PREDICTION:
Skins 20-16
In his first podcast, Kevin makes Skins’ season predictions, talks Terps’ controversy, releases his Smell Test picks, and tells you that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are on upset alert.
A podcast. It wasn’t what I would’ve guessed a month or so go but I’m ready to talk some football and my new podcast “The Kevin Sheehan Show” is the only way I can do it for now. I’m excited about it. I’ll do one Monday through Friday. I’ll try to have it out before noon. I have no idea if Cooley will be a part of it but we both would like that to happen if it can. For now, it’s me with some help. Each Tuesday and Thursday, Thom Loverro will join me for the Sports Fix 2.0. I’m so happy about this. We’ve talked for the last few years about one day working together again and this podcast gives us a chance to do it. Others will be a part of it. Van Pelt will be on with us on Thursdays. Lots of insiders and beat reporters from the various teams in town that I like. Tons of gambling talk, especially during football season is a given. Give it a listen and please tell others. Thanks for your kind words over the last few weeks.
