The Redskins will beat the Falcons if….

1. …they keep doing it THEIR WAY. What’s worked three straight weeks is running the ball, stopping the run, and winning the turnover battle. This is THE formula for them. It appears to be the only formula for them right now. 

2. …they realize despite the numbers, Atlanta can still run it. You may look at the Falcons and think you don’t have to stop the run this year because they haven’t run it that well.  I think they’re still a very capable running team. No Freeman so far this year but Tevin Coleman is a good back. He has several runs of 15+ yards even though he’s averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards per carry. The Falcons are one of those teams that seemingly don’t even need results in the running game to be effective with boot action and play action. Matt Ryan is easily the best they’ve faced since Brees. The Skins have been in nickel much of the season so far on defense and today won’t be any different.  Atlanta is one of those teams that will run it on 2^nd and 10 against nickel so the Skins’ dominant defensive front will be tested at times with little in the box help. Atlanta is dangerous even when one-dimensional. They’re impossible to stop if they have everything working.

3. …Adrian Peterson has another big day. He’s carried the load on offense when they’ve won and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again today against a defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (26th in the league). The loss of Trent Williams may impact their ability to run it but I think they’ll be okay against Atlanta with Nsekhe.  The Redskins have run it so many ways this year. Under center, shot gun, zone runs, counter plays, read option, speed option, and more. Running it well today keeps Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense off the field but it also will once again provide Alex Smith with easy play-action pitch and catch chances.  Atlanta is hurting in their secondary so perhaps today is the day Smith gets on track.   

4. …they finish plus-1 or better in turnover margin. They are plus-6 the last three games and another plus day will help. The Skins are tied for 3rd in the league right now in turnover margin; their 6 giveaways are good for 2nd best in the league behind Atlanta’s 4. Smith hasn’t thrown the ball well or moved the team consistently. His biggest contribution to the offense has been protecting the ball. The Skins have no margin for error on offense.

5. …they are better in the red zone. The Redskins are 25th in the league right now in red zone touchdown efficiency….not good. It hasn’t hurt them against their last three opponents….it will today. It won’t help that Crowder and Thompson are out again. Gruden needs to scheme up some good red zone stuff today. A 1 for 4 day will really hurt their chances.

6. …they get some calls/breaks that go their way. A holding penalty that makes it 2^nd and 20 or 2^nd and 15 will help. An offensive P.I that looks questionable that moves Atlanta back into a 3^rd and 16 instead of 1^st and 10 could derail a drive. Those calls can stop a drive dead in its tracks. Sometimes against teams like Atlanta, that’s what’s required to get off the field.

7. …they get pass rush pressure on Matt Ryan. Interior pressure against that offensive line is a good bet today. Ryan has been sacked 20 times this year and a lot of it is because of what Cooley told me the other day…they’ve really struggled from guard to guard (interior O-line play). The Skins have 21 sacks in 7 games. Getting to Ryan especially on 3^rd down could ultimately be the deciding factor in this game. If they don’t get to him, I don’t see the Skins’ secondary holding up against Jones, Sanu, Ridley, etc. Those guys are going to get open and if Ryan has time, Atlanta will put up some big numbers. I think this is a week where Manusky gets super aggressive.

Prediction:
Redskins 23-20

To listen to this and more from Friday’s podcast, click below and go to the 5:44 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/02/redskins-keys-to-going-6-2-plus-scott-van-pelt/

WHAT’S THE FRIDAY FOOTBALL SMELL TEST? 

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from covers.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means late sharp money is with me.

To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:12:20 mark below.

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/11/02/redskins-keys-to-going-6-2-plus-scott-van-pelt/

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 4-7

Overall: 49-44-3

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 11-3-18  

Saturday, November 3:

Maryland +2.5

Nebraska +18

Air Force +6.5

Baylor +8

Tulane +7

Purdue -2.5

Michigan -10.5

Washington -10

Sunday, November 4:

Lions +5.5

Browns +8

Ravens -2.5

Broncos -1

***Rams -1.5 (Added Late)***

To listen to Chris Cooley break down the Skins-Falcons game, click below and go to the 43:10 mark. 

https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/31/cooley-and-kevin-on-ha-ha-maryland-and-more/