How impressive was the Redskins’ win over the Giants? Kevin and Thom discuss that and they look ahead to the Falcons game. They get to the World Series, Klay Thompson, and Bryce Harper’s future. They finish up the show talking about the Redskins grievance win against their former GM, Scot McCloughan.
Redskins just won their third straight, and Kevin once again praises Doug Williams for bringing in Adrian Peterson. He goes through his game takes, including thoughts on another great performance by the defense and what he thought of Alex Smith’s outing. JP Finlay joins the show after his day in New York to give his thoughts on the Redskins win. Kevin then highlights some quotes after the game that he particularly liked. He goes Around the NFL, featuring the Saints win over the Vikings, the Rams win over the Packers, and the Eagles win in London. He wraps up the show with Weekend DVR where he looks at the Red Sox winning the World Series and Dave Roberts decision-making over the weekend, the Wizards loss to the Clippers, Maryland’s win and the rest of the college football slate, and his thoughts on what Scott Boras said about Bryce Harper.
The Redskins will beat the Giants if….
- …they don’t fall into the trap many NFL teams fall into which is following up an emotionally draining win with a let-down dud. This is clearly what the oddsmakers believe will happen hence the very short pick-em/Skins -1 line. I have no idea what to expect from the Giants but I know they are capable of playing better than their 1-6 record indicates.
- …they get off to a quick start; grab a lead. This plays well on three fronts. First, it’s always good to score first and take a lead in an NFL game. Secondly, the Redskins appear to be a team that isn’t built to come from behind if coming from behind requires throwing the ball much more than running it. Thirdly, if the Skins start fast, the Giants may be at a point in their season where it would be over for them. If the Skins jump out to a 14-0 lead, it could lead to the Giants bailing on the game and their season.
- …they make the best of their big advantage. The Redskins’ strength is their defensive front. The Giants’ weakness is their O-line, one of the worst I’ve seen in years. If the Skins disrupt up front by stuffing the run and getting quick pressure on Eli, it’s over.
- …if they tackle well. Barkley and Beckham can take a little something and turn it into a big something if they don’t tackle well. A couple of little somethings that turn into a couple of big somethings could be the difference between 2-3 scores and 2-3 forced punts.
- ...they follow the formula of the last two weeks. The formula of running the ball, stopping the run, winning the turnover battle, winning the field position battle, and playing good special teams still works. The old NFL saying “more games are lost than won” has applied the last two games.
Prediction:
This one is either a Skins’ blowout win or a last possession game either way.
Let’s get nuts….
20-20 tie.
****
To listen to a complete preview of the Redskins-Giants game from Friday’s podcast, click below and go to the 8:40 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/26/redskins-giants-trap-game-or-not/
To listen to Chris Cooley and I discuss Redskins-Giants, click below and go to the 14:30 mark.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/24/cooley-grades-alex-smith/
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means late sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 40:57 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/26/redskins-giants-trap-game-or-not/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 5-7
Overall: 45-37-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-27-18
Saturday, October 27:
Northwestern +4.5
SMU +8.5
Missouri -7
Western Kentucky +3.5
Mississippi State -1.5
UTEP +16
Sunday, October 28:
Jaguars +3
Ravens -2
Bucs +4
Rams -9.5
Monday, October 29:
Bills +14
Kevin takes a look at the Redskins/Giants game and asks the question everyone seems to be asking: is this a trap game for the Redskins? He breaks everything down with what the Redskins need to do to win. Chris Russell then calls in to help preview of Sunday’s game. Kevin goes through all of NFL Week 8 and the college football games you need to pay attention to (including everything that’s going on at Maryland) in his Friday Football Quick Picks, before giving his bets in the Smell Test. He wraps up the show with Andy Pollin giving his historical takes on Redskins/Giants, and then Kevin, Andy and Bram Weinstein all give their predictions.
It’s a Sports Fix Thursday and Thom is in. Kevin and Thom open the show by talking about the Wizards loss to Steph Curry and the Warriors, as well as the World Series. Adam Schefter then joins to talk about the state of the Redskins and the rest of the NFL. After Schefter, Scott Van Pelt calls in to talk about his segment on SportsCenter Wednesday night, the Redskins, college football and more. They wrap it up with a look at the potential ramifications of Redskins/Giants and NFL Power Polls.
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