Kevin starts the show with a brief World Series game 1 recap, then talks about the Giants trading off parts of the defense and asks if they’re packing it in. Cooley joins the show with an assessment of Alex Smith. Steve Buckhantz is a guest from Northern California, where the Wizards play the Warriors tonight. Plus, NFL Buy or Sell.
It’s a Sports Fix Tuesday and Thom Loverro is in. Kevin and Thom ask a simple question following the win on Sunday: Are the Redskins a playoff team? They also talk about the Giants loss on Monday Night Football and the Wizards win on the West Coast. Amari Cooper was traded to the Cowboys, Patrick Peterson is available, and World Series talk. Plus, Coaching Blunders.
Kevin recaps the Redskins 20-17 win over the Cowboys. He touches on the solid, tried-and-true NFL winning formula the Redskins executed for the second straight week. He doesn’t ignore the flaws, including Alex Smith’s struggles at QB. He invites JP Finlay in to discuss the big win, goes around the NFL, discusses the Wizards loss on Saturday night and the key college football games from Saturday.
The Redskins will beat the Cowboys if….
- …they play a clean game again. Last week is very likely going to be the formula for the Redskins at least in the short-term. At this point of the season, Alex Smith is not ready nor is his offense ready to throw the ball to win, especially against good defensive teams like Dallas. Last week, they won the old-fashioned way. They were +3 turnover margin, didn’t commit any dumb penalties, dominated field position, played well on special teams, stopped the run, and stayed balanced on offense. Another clean game and they’ll have a chance to win today.
- …they run the football. I don’t know if they can but they’ll certainly need to do it to have success offensively. Dallas is 7th in the league in rush defense but 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. The Cowboys are getting healthier too with Sean Lee due back today. The Redskins have run it well in three games and won all of them. They didn’t run it well in two games and lost both. If they can’t run it at least a little bit to keep them in good down/distance, it’ll be a long day against Dallas’ very good pass rush.
- …Chris Thompson is healthy and is used as an extension of the running game. They really need Thompson today because I think using Thompson on play-action check-downs or quick swing passes on any down/distance allowing him to make some plays could be a difference-making strategy for the Skins. Early-down short throws to Thompson allowing his speed and elusiveness to replace a running play could be very effective. Yes, the Dallas linebackers are good and fast but Thompson is the one player you can guarantee touches for and his touches can lead to yards and first-downs. I would love to see 12-15+ touches for Thompson today.
- …they make the Cowboys one-dimensional on offense. Dallas got Prescott into the run game last week and it was a big help for their play-action passes. Forcing Prescott to beat them with his arm is a winning situation for the Skins but that will require them to stop all forms of Dallas runs.
- …they win the field-position battle. They dominated field position against the Panthers and while it didn’t lead to a ton of points, it led to enough for the win. Good punting, good punt coverage and being able to move the ball out of bad field position situations with a few first downs even if you don’t score will be big today. You can’t be worried about checking it down on a 3rd down if nothing is there and punting. Alex Smith is good at that and won’t force things if they’re not available. Dallas isn’t an offense at this point that you have to worry about keeping pace with in terms of scoring. It may not sound very sexy, but winning the field-position battle on a windy day like today will go a long way towards a win. Penalties on returns will hurt more today than in most games. A 3rd-down sack rather than a check-down for 10 yards on 3rd and long is the difference between punting from your own 15 or 35. These things will matter a lot today.
Prediction:
Cowboys 20-19
Podcast:
Friday’s podcast featured a lengthy interview with Mike Shanahan. He previews the game today and a lot more. It starts at the 46:53 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/19/skins-cowboys-previews-predictions-possibilities/
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.
The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means late sharp money is with me.
To hear all of the Smell Test picks as they were discussed on Friday’s podcast, go to the 1:07:07 mark below.
https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/19/skins-cowboys-previews-predictions-possibilities/
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 11-7
Overall: 40-30-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-20-18
Saturday, October 20:
TCU +8
Clemson -17
Washington -17
Washington State -3
New Mexico +13.5
New Mexico State +11
**Miami (Ohio) +8
**Mississippi State +6.5
**added after Friday’s show
Sunday, October 21:
Titans +7
Browns +3.5
Bears +3
Bengals +6
Kevin recaps the Wizards opener then previews Redskins-Cowboys with John Keim, Mike Shanahan and by himself. Lots of NFL discussion plus 10 “Smell Test” picks. Andy Pollin joins the show and talks about the best and worst of Skins-Dallas at Fed Ex Field before Kevin and Andy give their predictions on the final score of Sunday’s game.
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