The Wizards lost their opener to the Heat 113-112.  Here are a few takeaways.

  1.  It’s hard to win when the opponent gets 22 offensive rebounds.  The Wizards went small a lot but box-outs were more the issue than size disadvantage.
  2.  Kelly Olynyk’s put-back game-winner off Wade’s miss was too easy.  Morris was guarding him and never put a body on him.  A shame because Wall played great defense on Wade forcing a very tough shot.
  3.  The Wizards’ final offensive possession wasn’t good enough but something we’ve seen before.  John Wall was the only player to touch the ball. He apparently got the switch he wanted with McGruder but McGruder played off and gave up the 3-point attempt.  The shot looked good and it would’ve iced the game but that’s not what the Wizards should be looking for in that spot.  I’m not asking for a play or a set, just would like to see some ball movement to make the defense move.  Settling for a Wall 3-point attempt (he was 1-6) with the game on the line has never worked.  Perhaps Brooks wants Wall to get it to the rim in that situation but still, moving the defense with some ball movement to start the possession would make that easier to accomplish.  Two of the final three possessions featured Wall as the only player to touch the ball.
  4. I thought the effort defensively was decent minus the rebounding for much of the night but they still aren’t consistent enough possession by possession.  They gave up some easy back-doors overplaying and denying with no paint help.  The Heat shot 39.2% from the floor which Scott Brooks will take every night but the offensive rebounds just killed them.  Wall at times looked super interested in defending.  I liked his intensity tonight.  Obviously it should be there for the opener but he had 3 blocked shots and at least two more close-outs that affected the shot attempt including Wade’s last one.
  5. 10 missed free throws (29-39) didn’t help.  They have too many good shooters to be less than 79-80% from the FT line as an average.
  6. Otto Porter didn’t attempt a 3-pointer.  The analytic geeks will throw a tantrum over it but won’t be able to explain why.  Porter played well tonight.  I didn’t have a major problem with his overall game.  He did a ton of things that help a team win.  I would like him to get more offensive opportunities but the Wizards don’t and shouldn’t run too much for him.  They don’t really run many sets for anybody.  Scott Brooks shouldn’t be angst-ridden over Otto Porter’s 3-point attempts.  It’s a numbers/stats take from people who wouldn’t know how to screen a screener for cash.  If they rebound which they didn’t tonight, they’ll get more chances in transition which is one of the places Porter has gotten good 3-point chances in the past.  When they get Howard back, he’ll play less at the 4-spot when they go small and that will give him more chances. Otto Porter has shot a high percentage from the 3-point line in the past because a) he’s a good shooter b) he takes “good” threes which for him are attempts with feet set, catch, shoot, and very often unguarded on the catch.  If he starts passing on those threes, then I’ll have a problem.
  7. I like Jeff Green.  High IQ player who will contribute a lot to this team.
  8. I still like how hard Kelly Oubre competes.
  9. Still too many turnovers in key spots like Wall’s errant pass up 4 with 4 minutes left.  McGruder hit a three on the other end….that was a big swing.
  10. To hear my interview with Scott Brooks yesterday, click here/go to the 12:45 mark.  https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/17/scott-brooks-and-mike-wilbon/

It’s a Sports Fix Thursday with Thom Loverro. Kevin and Thom start the show by talking about the fan interference call in the Red Sox/Astros game and whether Craig Counsell was right to pull the bait-and-switch with Wade Miley in the Dodgers/Brewers game. They then have a Wizards season preview, including how many wins Kevin and Thom think they end up with. They shift to the Redskins and ask if this feels like a big game, or a real Dallas week? They run down their NFL Power Polls, before sharing their thoughts on the passing of longtime Washington Redskins reporter Rich Tandler. The show wraps up with Scott Van Pelt joining the show.

The NBA season has started, and Kevin welcomes Scott Brooks on the show before the Wizards open against the Heat. After the conversation with the coach, Kevin has some “Whadya Got?” which includes Kristi Toliver becoming a coach on the Wizards, Nathan Peterman, Boston TV sports ratings and more. Then Mike Wilbon joins the show. They discuss everything from the baseball playoffs to what he’s seeing in the NFL season to the start of the NBA season. The show wraps up with NFL Buy or Sell and a talk about the start of the season for Maryland basketball.

It’s a Sports Fix Tuesday as Thom Loverro is in. They talk about the Monday Night Football game and how impressive Aaron Rodgers was before moving on to the Redskins. What is Thom’s take on Alex Smith? Could the Redskins be 5-2 two weeks from now? And they argue about what could happen in the future, particularly if this ends up not being a playoff team. Plus, Coaching Blunders and more.

The Redskins held on for a big win against the Panthers. Some fans were a little bit unhappy about the second half and how close the game became but Kevin had a different opinion. Adrian Peterson was great, who else stood out on the team? How was Jay Gruden’s coaching? Kevin also talks about what the Redskins need to do this week, as it is Dallas Week. After taking a few of your calls, JP Finlay joins to give his recap of what happened Sunday afternoon and what the biggest keys were to the win. Kevin then goes Around the NFL, including a close look at the Sunday Night Football game between the Patriots and Chiefs, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Buccaneers/Falcons game and more. He then wraps up with Weekend DVR with a look across college football including the Maryland win over Rutgers and some major action in the SEC.

It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.  There’s more to it than that including unique access to information about where certain sharp action is but for the most part, it’s the realization over many years that the house wins more than it loses and the house advantage comes from much more than just the built-in vig/fee advantage.

The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show.  Lines change.  Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing.  It usually means that later sharp money is with me.

Also, these picks were released initially on Friday’s show/podcast.  To hear it, listen starting at the 1:30:42 mark here-https://thekevinsheehanshow.com/2018/10/12/lock-it-up-skins-will-beat-panthers-plus-cooley/

Good Luck!

THIS YEAR

Last Week: 6-2

Overall: 29-23-3

SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-12-18

Friday, October 12:

Tulsa +7

Saturday, October 13:

Virginia +6.5

South Carolina +2.5

UNC +6

ODU +3.5

Liberty +9

USC -7

Michigan -9

Nebraska +3.5

Indiana +5.5

Memphis +4.5

Vanderbilt +7

Michigan State +13.5

BYU -11

Sunday, October 14:

Browns +1

Bucs +3

Texans -10

Monday, October 15:

49ers +9.5