The Redskins will beat the Panthers if….

1. …they are balanced on offense.  If it’s not clear to those of you who that thought the Skins had traded for Dan Marino, it should be now.  Alex Smith has succeeded on good teams with good talent and with a legitimate running game.  On his first two winning teams, the 49ers had the 8^th ranked rush offense in 2011 and the 4^th ranked rush offense in 2012.  After being replaced by Kapernick midway through the 2012 season, he went to Kansas City where he quarterbacked the Chiefs to six straight winning seasons.  In 5 of those 6 seasons, the Chiefs had a top-10 rushing attack with the likes of Jamal Charles, Spencer Ware, and Kareem Hunt.  Add to the rush attack he always had, he also played behind good offensive lines, for a good offensive coach, with an elite tight end, and for the last 2 years, talent and speed on the outside.  Jay Gruden and Bill Callahan haven’t been great at scheming up a running game in Washington.  Hopefully the brain trust in Ashburn realized what many of our fans didn’t realize before the trade.  The realization that while the last guy (Cousins) put up numbers and gave the offense a chance with no threat of a running game, the new guy doesn’t do that.  Gruden thinks his system is about his schemes as much as it is about the quarterback who directs them.  This year with this quarterback will test that theory.  Smith is a good quarterback who leads well and performs well with a good supporting cast.  To date, the Skins haven’t had the supporting cast.  The offense is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 22^nd in the NFL.  IMO, part of their rushing attack must include Smith himself.  Reid consistently used Smith as a run threat.  Gruden should too.  I’d like to see more read-option, speed-option, and anything else that creates an 11 on 11 running attack.
2. …they stop the run.  The Panthers lead the league at 154 yards rushing per game.  McCaffery is the star many thought he would become as a versatile pass receiver (7 catches per game) and runner (5.2 per carry).  Cam is running early and often averaging 4.6 per carry on close to 9 carries per game.  It’s a combination for him of zone-read, designed runs, and scrambles.  Norv isn’t messing around.  He knows the value of posing Cam as a run-threat and what that does to a defense.  By the way, CJ Anderson is averaging 5.3 yds per carry.  The Redskins have a solid defensive front with Allen and Payne in particular.  They can slow the Panthers down and by doing it, force Cam to win with his arm on 3rd and long.  Too many 2nd down and threes, 2nd down and fours, and the Skins are in big trouble.
3. …they fix their coverage problems.  Wow have they had issues on the back end defensively.  Bad communication on a ton of pick and faux pick plays against the Colts.  Busted coverage against the Packers at least once on the long touchdown to Allison.  Monday night was a disaster with one busted coverage after another.  Communication appears to be a big problem.  Cam’s security blanket Gregg Olsen may be back for the Panthers.  The Redskins have looked disorganized and poorly coached in their secondary so far.  It’s got to get better.
4. …they show some fight after being embarrassed.  The Redskins were totally humiliated in New Orleans.  They are better than what they showed.  This game today is near “must-win” but certainly is “must play well”.  The NFC East weakness doesn’t matter.  Competing for a division title that might be won with an 8-8 or 9-7 record is less important than signs that the team and franchise are headed in the right direction.  Losing today would be bad.  Playing like they did on Monday night and losing would be worse.  We’ve seen things unravel quickly around here especially when a head coach appears to be in trouble.  A win today would put the unraveling on hold.

Prediction:

Redskins 23-20

The Podcast:

Cooley was on the show. So was Andy Pollin.  We previewed Redskins-Panthers.  Smell Test is on fire….12-2-1 in the NFL over the last four weeks.  It went 10-4 yesterday.  There are three NFL picks today and one tomorrow night.

http://TheKevinSheehanShow.com

The Redskins will beat the Saints if….

1. …they move the football consistently.  They’ve been an inconsistent offensive football team so far but they’re playing against one of the weaker defenses in the league.  Converting third-downs keeps the chains and clock moving which results in Drew Brees being off the field.  I trust the defense more this year but any defense knows that the formula for beating the Saints includes keeping Brees off the field.  In last year’s memorable meltdown in New Orleans, the Skins rolled up 456 yards and 31 points through just over three quarters.  They blitzed Cousins and he made them pay at every turn.  They ran the ball with Perine (117 yards) which ate clock and they didn’t have a 3 & out until the 4th quarter.  The New Orleans defense is worse this year than last so far.  It ranks 24th overall and 28th on 3rd-down.  The Skins’ offense is a work in progress but this should be a chance for a breakout game.  A lot of tonight’s success will be on Alex Smith.  He needs to read it, get it out, and when necessary, use his legs to make plays.  I hope Gruden runs more read-option and even some of the speed option stuff we saw in the opener against the Cardinals.  Andy Reid never hesitated to run him in Kansas City if it was necessary.  The Skins are relatively healthy and have enough weapons to do some damage even without a legit deep threat.  Reed, Thompson, Crowder, and Peterson are more than most teams have.  Tonight needs to be an offensive night or they’re in trouble.
2. …they catch the 1-2 balls that Brees will put up for grabs.  Brees has not thrown an interception this year but Brees over the course of his career will give the opponent 1-2 interception opportunities per game.  He takes risks, throws into tight windows, and until last year, had gone 12 straight seasons with double-digit picks.  The Skins have to make him pay if/when he makes that occasional risky throw that he shouldn’t make.  A plus-2 in the turnover margin would go a long way to having a chance to win the game.
3. …Jay Gruden & staff are on top of their game.  Last year’s painful 15-point throwaway in the Superdome was on a defense that crumbled but on a coaching staff that bungled and stumbled with the game on the line.  Gruden got conservative; so did Manusky.  They played soft coverage against Brees up 15 and paid for it.  Gruden ran the ball three times when they needed one first down to ice the game.  The 3rd and less than a yard was a slow-developing running play with the crowd roaring that got blown up.  Sneak it!  You can’t ever think about giving the ball back to the Saints in a close game even if they have no timeouts.  You have to win it on offense.  Jay didn’t recognize that.  He also had a stupid challenge on an obvious Fleener catch that cost him a timeout he would desperately need when he didn’t know the 10-sec runoff rule at the end of the regulation.  That botched situation could’ve been saved with the timeout he gave away for a non-sense challenge and they still would’ve had a chance to win it before overtime.  You think that game has stuck with me a little?  Look, let’s be honest here.  Jay Gruden has been a liability in close games more than an asset.  He’s a nice guy and a good offensive mind but when it comes to the little things, he’s often a day late/dollar short.  That must change this year or a somewhat talented team will be wasted.

Prediction:

Saints 30-23

The Podcast:

Clinton Portis was a guest today as was Andy Pollin.  Lots of NFL Sunday recap plus a discussion about where Drew Brees ranks among the all-time greats.

http://TheKevinSheehanShow.com