It’s a big night for the Redskins, as they play on Monday Night Football. First, Kevin talks about the historic nature of tonight as he looks at where Drew Brees ranks on the all-time quarterback list. Then he goes Around the NFL, where he talks about the Browns, Rams, Vikings and more, plus he actually agrees with Jason Garrett’s decision. From there he segues into “Redskins Win If” where he breaks down what he needs to see from the players and the coach if the Redskins are going to come away with a big win today. Clinton Portis then joins to give his take on if the Redskins can win against CP’s childhood team. Following Portis, Kevin goes through Weekend DVR, where he talks Maryland/Michigan and the rest of the college football slate, and has something to say about the Braves win. Finally, Andy Pollin sits in to look back at the 2012 game against the Saints, and both give their predictions on the game.
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way. The lines used are from http://scoresandodds.com as they appeared Friday during the show. Lines change. Typically, if a line is worse for me than it was on Friday, the contrarian handicapper in me regards that as a good thing. It usually means that sharp money is with me. Good Luck!
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 5-7-1
Overall: 23-21-3
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 10-6-18
Saturday, October 6:
Pitt +3.5
Florida +2
Miss State +3.5
Arizona State +2.5
Michigan State -10
Sunday, October 7:
Lions +1
Jets pick
Seahawks +7
Listen to the Friday podcast right here- http://TheKevinSheehanShow.com
There is some growing optimism about this Redskin season. A 2-1 start with a win over the Packers will inspire a level of hopefulness. Monday night’s game in New Orleans may provide the justification for that hope or shatter it.
The Redskins haven’t had many “prove it” early-season games like this one in recent years. Last year’s game against the Chiefs in week 4 felt similar but that’s the only one I can think of that really compares.
The Skins haven’t started 2-1 since 2011 and that beginning with Rex Grossman at the helm seemed fraudulent to all who were watching it. The way the Redskins play in New Orleans will be a substantive season signal one way or another.
For starters, the early-season optimism stems mostly from a sense that the defense is much better than it’s been in recent years. It’s not uncommon to hear people talk about the Redskins’ defense as one of the best in the NFL right now.
It’s currently ranked 3rd in the league even though that could be a bit deceiving considering they played an Arizona team that was woefully unprepared for the season-opener. Throw in the fact that Green Bay dropped 4-5 passes from a wounded Aaron Rodgers as a reason to put the breaks on talk that the defense has somehow gone from bad to elite in less than a year.
The talent is growing though. Allen and Payne are legit. Everyone around them benefits from their presence. The first real test though of just how good the Skins’ D is comes against Drew Brees and a New Orleans offense ranked in the top 4 of every offensive category so far. If you’re looking for a signal that this year is different, then the Skins’ resurgent defense will slow down the Saints.
Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense isn’t very good. It ranks 28th on 3rd-down; 24th overall. The Skins’ offense has had three good quarters out of the twelve its played. If last year’s team included a good to very good defense like the one we may be watching this year, it would’ve won 10 games.
This year’s offense appears to be a work in progress at best but there’s reason to believe that the work will eventually produce. For the first time since the Shanahans were here, there is an actual running-game threat thanks to an aging but inspired hall of famer. Add to that, a healthy Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, and Chris Thompson give the Skins enough weapons even without an obvious stretch-the-field deep threat to become reliable.
If you’re looking for a signal that the Skins’ offense is good enough to contribute to a defensive-led “playoff” season, then big production against a sub-par Saints’ defense is a must.
Imagine the Skins’ defense is the first to slow down the Saints explosive offense. Imagine Alex Smith and company take advantage of a N.O. defense filled with holes. Now imagine that the combination of both leads to a 31-21 win in the Superdome to get to 3-1.
If those images become reality, the Redskins will have signaled they are a contender in the NFC.
Kevin kicks off the show by talking about the resurrection of the Patriots on Thursday night. A record number of 50+ point over/unders this weekend? Kevin discusses that. An intriguing NFL Sunday is previewed. Then Kevin turns towards the Caps 7-6 overtime loss with “Smokin” Al Koken. They discuss the first two games, as well as the banner ceremony from Wednesday night. After Al departs, Kevin answers a tweet about Redskins/Saints. Tim Murray then joins to preview Notre Dame/Virginia Tech and Maryland/Michigan, and the rest of the college slate. The show wraps up with Kevin giving out eight Smell Test picks, while talking about some other leans.
It’s a Sports Fix Thursday as Thom Loverro is in. Thom was at the Capitals game last night, and the two talk about the banner ceremony, something they both thought was done extremely well overall, and that doesn’t even include the big win. However, was there one big oversight in it all? Plus, what does Thom think of Tom Wilson’s 20 game suspension? After the Caps, they move on to the Redskins. Kevin thinks the Saints game is the biggest measuring stick game in years for the Redskins. Also, what’s going on with Josh Doctson? Greg Wyshynski joins to give his thoughts on the Caps night, and on Tom Wilson’s injury. Is the team poised to go “Back to back” as the fans were chanting last night? Before getting to Scott Van Pelt, Kevin and Thom talk about a column Thom wrote about the Lerners, particularly how it relates to Jayson Werth’s ring of honor induction. Finally, Scott Van Pelt joins for a lot of gambling talk. All that and more on today’s show.
Chris Cooley is FINALLY back with Kevin, and the show starts with the two of them chatting for nearly an hour. After talking about how much they missed each other, they discuss what Cooley has seen from the Redskins over the first three weeks. How has Alex Smith and the offense looked? Cooley goes position by position about who has stood out to him in September and what he sees for the rest of the year. This includes Adrian Peterson, the defensive line and its usage, as well as the rest of the defense. Also, they look over the NFC East and where the Redskins stand in the division. After Cooley, Kevin brings on Joe Beninati to talk about the opener for the Capitals. Did he ever think he’d get to see a banner raised like he’ll see today? Does the departure of Barry Trotz put a damper on the celebration even slightly? And what about Tom Wilson? Kevin finishes the show by touching on Tuesday’s NL Wild Card game, and responds to a message he received about Adrian Peterson.
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