Thom Loverro is back in studio with Kevin, and the two of them start the show reading some emails, and they talk about the Nationals. ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt calls in to talk about the Redskins and about Lefty Driesell’s Hall of Fame induction speech. They also talk to Fox Five Meteorologist Sue Palka about what to expect from hurricane, Florence, then they have their first NFL Power Poll, and they talk about the Redskins and their ticket sales, and they close out with some thoughts on the Bengals / Ravens game.
Kevin opens show by taking issue with a photo of him in a Washington Post story. He makes a Redskins bold prediction, talks Skins with ESPN’s John Keim, Terps situation with Jeff Ermann (247sports.com), and has his first NFL Buy or Sell suggestions.
Kevin is joined in studio by his old radio partner – Thom Loverro. They reminisce about their show “The Sports Fix”. They also talk about the Redskins big win over the Cardinals, Thom weighs in on what went wrong with the Nats this year, then they talk about the MNF games, and they close out the show by discussing Thom’s column for the Washington Times about Colin Kaepernick.
It’s a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I look for the games where the public is convinced they are right about a point spread and I go the other way.
Have fun and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only.
THIS YEAR
Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 1-4
SMELL TEST PICKS FOR WEEKEND OF 9-8-18
Saturday, September 8:
Duke +3
Kansas +5
Miami-Ohio -1
Sunday, September 9
Bucs +10
Cowboys +3
49ers +6.5
Browns +4
Seahawks +3
Bills +7.5
Thirty minutes before kickoff, couple of quick thoughts on why point spreads move and what it should indicate to bettors.
Other than a major injury to a very important player, a big move of a point spread (at least 1.5 points or more) is almost always a reaction to sharp bets, not public bets. A sharp bet is a bet placed by a respected bettor. There aren’t many of them but the few dozen or so “sharps” that exist can move a point spread by simply betting money on one side.
It’s often difficult to measure the sharp-influenced moves for Week 1 because the opening lines were put out long before training camp even started. However, here are a couple of late moves an hour before kickoff that are interesting.
- Cleveland was +4.5 a few days ago and in the last hour, that number has come down to +3.
- Arizona was a pick/-1 a few hours ago…..they are -2 now with a few -2.5 lines out there. There is sharp money on the Cardinals right now against the Redskins.
One more thing to watch during the course of the season. When the public is lined up on one side and the line is moving against it, that’s an even stronger indication of sharp money moving a line. It’s also a huge fit for my Smell Test.
A great example came yesterday when Kansas went from +7 a few days ago to +3 just before kickoff. Heavy public money was coming in on Central Michigan because Kansas had lost to Nichols State a week earlier and hadn’t won a road game in 9 years. Sharp money on Kansas moved the point spread down while the public was pounding Central Michigan. Kansas won the game 31-7. Sharps won, public lost.
Kevin breaks down the dominant win in Arizona, talks Rodgers comeback at Lambeau, takes you around the NFL, talks the 2-0 Terps, and has JP Finlay/NBC Sports Washington on the show to discuss Skins-Cards.
Windows Nation
