Thirty minutes before kickoff, couple of quick thoughts on why point spreads move and what it should indicate to bettors.
Other than a major injury to a very important player, a big move of a point spread (at least 1.5 points or more) is almost always a reaction to sharp bets, not public bets. A sharp bet is a bet placed by a respected bettor. There aren’t many of them but the few dozen or so “sharps” that exist can move a point spread by simply betting money on one side.
It’s often difficult to measure the sharp-influenced moves for Week 1 because the opening lines were put out long before training camp even started. However, here are a couple of late moves an hour before kickoff that are interesting.
- Cleveland was +4.5 a few days ago and in the last hour, that number has come down to +3.
- Arizona was a pick/-1 a few hours ago…..they are -2 now with a few -2.5 lines out there. There is sharp money on the Cardinals right now against the Redskins.
One more thing to watch during the course of the season. When the public is lined up on one side and the line is moving against it, that’s an even stronger indication of sharp money moving a line. It’s also a huge fit for my Smell Test.
A great example came yesterday when Kansas went from +7 a few days ago to +3 just before kickoff. Heavy public money was coming in on Central Michigan because Kansas had lost to Nichols State a week earlier and hadn’t won a road game in 9 years. Sharp money on Kansas moved the point spread down while the public was pounding Central Michigan. Kansas won the game 31-7. Sharps won, public lost.
